{"slug":"iron-condor-win-rate-and-expectancy","qid":"delta_win_rate","label":"Advertised iron condor win rate by short delta band (SPY)","post_title":"Iron Condor Win Rate and Expectancy","post_url":"/blog/iron-condor-win-rate-and-expectancy#q-delta_win_rate","columns":["delta_bucket","short_put_delta_pct","short_call_delta_pct","condor_win_rate_pct","contract_count"],"rows":[{"delta_bucket":"5 to 10 delta","short_put_delta_pct":7.3,"short_call_delta_pct":7.4,"condor_win_rate_pct":85.3,"contract_count":4643},{"delta_bucket":"10 to 15 delta","short_put_delta_pct":12.4,"short_call_delta_pct":12.4,"condor_win_rate_pct":75.2,"contract_count":3511},{"delta_bucket":"15 to 20 delta","short_put_delta_pct":17.4,"short_call_delta_pct":17.4,"condor_win_rate_pct":65.2,"contract_count":2838},{"delta_bucket":"20 to 25 delta","short_put_delta_pct":22.4,"short_call_delta_pct":22.5,"condor_win_rate_pct":55.1,"contract_count":2277},{"delta_bucket":"25 to 30 delta","short_put_delta_pct":27.5,"short_call_delta_pct":27.4,"condor_win_rate_pct":45.1,"contract_count":1923}],"shape":"table","sql":"SELECT\n    multiIf(abs(delta) < 0.10, '5 to 10 delta',\n            abs(delta) < 0.15, '10 to 15 delta',\n            abs(delta) < 0.20, '15 to 20 delta',\n            abs(delta) < 0.25, '20 to 25 delta',\n                               '25 to 30 delta')          AS delta_bucket,\n    round(100 * avgIf(abs(delta), delta < 0), 1)           AS short_put_delta_pct,\n    round(100 * avgIf(delta, delta > 0), 1)                AS short_call_delta_pct,\n    round(100 - 100 * (avgIf(abs(delta), delta < 0)\n                     + avgIf(delta, delta > 0)), 1)        AS condor_win_rate_pct,\n    count()                                                AS contract_count\nFROM global_markets.options_greeks\nWHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'\n  AND date >= '2026-07-01'\n  AND date <  '2026-10-01'\n  AND iv_converged = 1\n  AND volume > 0\n  AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 28 AND 45\n  AND abs(delta) >= 0.05\n  AND abs(delta) <  0.30\nGROUP BY delta_bucket\nHAVING countIf(delta < 0) > 0 AND countIf(delta > 0) > 0\nORDER BY condor_win_rate_pct DESC","computed_at":"2026-10-05T15:06:01.532741+00:00","elapsed":0.001732678}