Same $100 invested: one single stock versus the S&P 500 index, indexed to 100
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from The Real Risk of One Stock.
| month | spy_indexed | tsla_indexed |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 100 | 100 |
| Aug 2025 | 102.1 | 108.4 |
| Sep 2025 | 105.4 | 144.2 |
| Oct 2025 | 107.9 | 148.1 |
| Nov 2025 | 108.1 | 139.6 |
| Dec 2025 | 107.9 | 145.9 |
| Jan 2026 | 109.5 | 139.7 |
| Feb 2026 | 108.6 | 130.6 |
| Mar 2026 | 102.9 | 120.6 |
| Apr 2026 | 113.7 | 123.8 |
| May 2026 | 119.7 | 141.3 |
| Jun 2026 | 118.1 | 136.4 |
| Jul 2026 | 118.2 | 100.9 |
| Aug 2026 | 121.4 | 118.1 |
- Rows × columns
- 14 × 3
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
month |
date | Apr 2026 to Sep 2025 | |
spy_indexed |
number | 100 to 121.4 | |
tsla_indexed |
number | 100 to 148.1 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT formatDateTime(mo, '%b %Y') AS month,
round(anyIf(idx, ticker = 'SPY'), 1) AS spy_indexed,
round(anyIf(idx, ticker = 'TSLA'), 1) AS tsla_indexed
FROM (
SELECT ticker, mo,
mclose / first_value(mclose) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY mo
ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) * 100 AS idx
FROM (
SELECT ticker, mo, argMax(c, dt) AS mclose
FROM (
SELECT ticker,
toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS mo,
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,
argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'TSLA')
AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 400 DAY
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY ticker, mo, dt
)
GROUP BY ticker, mo
)
)
GROUP BY mo
ORDER BY mo
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