Same $100 invested: one single stock versus the S&P 500 index, indexed to 100
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-10-04, from The Real Risk of One Stock.
| month | spy_indexed | tsla_indexed |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 100 | 100 |
| Oct 2025 | 102.4 | 102.7 |
| Nov 2025 | 102.6 | 96.8 |
| Dec 2025 | 102.4 | 101.1 |
| Jan 2026 | 103.9 | 96.9 |
| Feb 2026 | 103 | 90.5 |
| Mar 2026 | 97.6 | 83.6 |
| Apr 2026 | 107.9 | 85.8 |
| May 2026 | 113.6 | 98 |
| Jun 2026 | 112 | 94.5 |
| Jul 2026 | 112.1 | 70 |
| Aug 2026 | 115.1 | 82.8 |
| Sep 2026 | 114.5 | 79.8 |
| Oct 2026 | 115.6 | 83.6 |
- Rows × columns
- 14 × 3
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
month |
text | 14 distinct values (Apr 2026, Aug 2026, Dec 2025…) | |
spy_indexed |
number | 97.6 to 115.6 | |
tsla_indexed |
number | 70 to 102.7 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
SELECT formatDateTime(mo, '%b %Y') AS month,
round(anyIf(idx, ticker = 'SPY'), 1) AS spy_indexed,
round(anyIf(idx, ticker = 'TSLA'), 1) AS tsla_indexed
FROM (
SELECT ticker, mo,
mclose / first_value(mclose) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY mo
ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) * 100 AS idx
FROM (
SELECT ticker, mo, argMax(c, dt) AS mclose
FROM (
SELECT ticker,
toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS mo,
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,
argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'TSLA')
AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 400 DAY
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY ticker, mo, dt
)
GROUP BY ticker, mo
)
)
GROUP BY mo
ORDER BY mo
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