{"slug":"concentration-risk","qid":"price_path","label":"Same $100 invested: one single stock versus the S&P 500 index, indexed to 100","post_title":"The Real Risk of One Stock","post_url":"/blog/concentration-risk#q-price_path","columns":["month","spy_indexed","tsla_indexed"],"rows":[{"month":"Jul 2025","spy_indexed":100,"tsla_indexed":100},{"month":"Aug 2025","spy_indexed":102.1,"tsla_indexed":108.4},{"month":"Sep 2025","spy_indexed":105.4,"tsla_indexed":144.2},{"month":"Oct 2025","spy_indexed":107.9,"tsla_indexed":148.1},{"month":"Nov 2025","spy_indexed":108.1,"tsla_indexed":139.6},{"month":"Dec 2025","spy_indexed":107.9,"tsla_indexed":145.9},{"month":"Jan 2026","spy_indexed":109.5,"tsla_indexed":139.7},{"month":"Feb 2026","spy_indexed":108.6,"tsla_indexed":130.6},{"month":"Mar 2026","spy_indexed":102.9,"tsla_indexed":120.6},{"month":"Apr 2026","spy_indexed":113.7,"tsla_indexed":123.8},{"month":"May 2026","spy_indexed":119.7,"tsla_indexed":141.3},{"month":"Jun 2026","spy_indexed":118.1,"tsla_indexed":136.4},{"month":"Jul 2026","spy_indexed":118.2,"tsla_indexed":100.9},{"month":"Aug 2026","spy_indexed":121.4,"tsla_indexed":118.1}],"shape":"series","sql":"SELECT formatDateTime(mo, '%b %Y') AS month,\n       round(anyIf(idx, ticker = 'SPY'), 1) AS spy_indexed,\n       round(anyIf(idx, ticker = 'TSLA'), 1) AS tsla_indexed\nFROM (\n    SELECT ticker, mo,\n           mclose / first_value(mclose) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY mo\n               ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) * 100 AS idx\n    FROM (\n        SELECT ticker, mo, argMax(c, dt) AS mclose\n        FROM (\n            SELECT ticker,\n                   toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS mo,\n                   toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,\n                   argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c\n            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs\n            WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'TSLA')\n              AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 400 DAY\n              AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60\n                   + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959\n            GROUP BY ticker, mo, dt\n        )\n        GROUP BY ticker, mo\n    )\n)\nGROUP BY mo\nORDER BY mo","computed_at":"2026-08-22T04:04:12.904813+00:00","elapsed":0.898961736}