Investing at All-Time Highs: What the Data Says
Should you invest at an all-time high? Every SPY record close on file, with the forward returns that followed and the deepest drawdown that began from one.
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Should you invest at an all-time high? Every SPY record close on file, with the forward returns that followed and the deepest drawdown that began from one.
S&P 500 returns 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the first Fed rate hike of the 2004, 2015 and 2022 cycles, from daily SPY closes, plus what the yield curve did.
Market-wide circuit breakers halt all US stock trading at 7%, 13% and 20% S&P 500 drops. See today's SPY trigger levels and the four March 2020 halts.
Price return vs total return: the S&P 500 headline index leaves out dividends. See the compounding gap measured over 20 years and where each version is used.