The Treasury Curve in H1 2026: a Twist, Not a Shift
Seven maturities, start of half against end: the front pinned, the belly up two-thirds of a point, the long end unmoved — a flattening without an inversion.
Educational explainers, recurring market-structure breakdowns, and historical deep-dives — every number sourced from a stored query against real market data.
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Seven maturities, start of half against end: the front pinned, the belly up two-thirds of a point, the long end unmoved — a flattening without an inversion.
H1 2026 in numbers: a down Q1, a 14.1% SPY recovery quarter, small caps leading the half, forty basis points of curve flattening, and a record of what's still missing.
Q2 2026: every index ETF up double digits — QQQ 26.5% — after a negative Q1, a flattening curve, and a quarter-end filing-day gap in the data.
June 2026 in numbers: SPY -1.2% while small caps rose, more decliners than advancers, one chip maker out-trading every ETF, and a missing quarter-end filing day.
Four sessions and a Friday holiday: SPY rose 2.2%, breadth ran positive, one chip maker out-traded every ETF, and the quarter turned with a filing-day gap.