How Markets Price Fed Rate Odds
Fed rate odds come from futures that settle on a month's average rate. See the day count arithmetic and a full worked example from a 2025 Fed meeting.
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Macro Picture Entering H2 2026, With Receipts
The macro picture entering H2 2026: hot headline CPI over a quiet core, anchored expectations, a flattening curve, and the H2 prints that could change it.
What Is the 2s10s Spread? Yield Curve Data
What the 2s10s spread is, how the Treasury yield curve works, and what past inversions looked like, with every chart built from auditable market data.