How Markets Price Fed Rate Odds
Fed rate odds come from futures that settle on a month's average rate. See the day count arithmetic and a full worked example from a 2025 Fed meeting.
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Macro Picture Entering H2 2026, With Receipts
The macro picture entering H2 2026: hot headline CPI over a quiet core, anchored expectations, a flattening curve, and the H2 prints that could change it.