Event Contract Arbitrage: YES + NO vs $1
One YES plus one NO always pays $1 at settlement. Here is how event contract arbitrage works when the two books disagree, and what fees and collateral cost.
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How Event Contracts Settle: Payout and Fees
How event contracts settle: the dollar payout, full collateral, who resolves the outcome, and how a one cent fee shifts your breakeven at 90 cents.
Event Contract Prices as Probabilities
An event contract settles at $1 or $0, so its price is a probability. See why Yes plus No costs more than $1, and how to strip the spread back out.