Feb 24 2022 uvamizi Urusi soko la hisa Marekani

Saa za asubuhi za Februari 24, 2022, Urusi ilianza uvamizi wake kamili wa Ukraine — na soko la hisa la Marekani likazaa mojawapo ya vipindi vilivyochunguzwa zaidi katika muongo huu. Fahirisi za mbele zilianguka kwa kasi usiku, ETF ya Nasdaq-100 QQQ ilifunguka -3.2% chini — na kufunga +3.4%. Ukurasa huu unarekodi tukio zima: mabadiliko ya mwelekeo dakika kwa dakika, kile S&P 500 na Dow zilifanya, mahali mafuta, dhahabu, hisa za ulinzi, Hazina na tete vilikwenda, na jinsi wiki zilizofuata zilivyoonekana. Kila nambari ni swala lililohifadhiwa; panua paneli yoyote kwa SQL.

Kabla ya kufunguliwa: jinsi usiku ulivyojitokeza

Uvamizi haukutokea ghafla. Kuanzia mwishoni mwa 2021 na mwanzoni mwa 2022, Urusi ilikusanya wanajeshi karibu na mpaka wa Ukraine — makadirio ya nchi za Magharibi yaliyoripotiwa wakati huo yalizidi 100,000 — na masoko yalikuwa yakifanya biashara ya hatari hiyo kwa wiki kadhaa. Jumatatu, Februari 21, Moscow ilizitambua jamhuri hizo mbili za kujitangaza za watengano mashariki mwa Ukraine; masoko ya Marekani yalikuwa yamefungwa kwa likizo ya Siku ya Kuzaliwa kwa Washington, na kikao cha kwanza kilichoweza kuweka bei ya habari hiyo kilikuwa Jumanne tarehe 22, kikao chekundu. Sehemu ya kwanza ya vikwazo vya nchi za Magharibi ilitolewa Jumanne hiyo hiyo, pamoja na kusimamishwa kwa uthibitishaji wa bomba la Nord Stream 2 na Ujerumani.

Kisha, muda mfupi kabla ya saa sita asubuhi kwa saa za Moscow siku ya Alhamisi, Februari 24 — karibu saa kumi jioni Jumatano huko New York — rais wa Urusi alitangaza operesheni hiyo, na milipuko iliripotiwa katika miji ya Ukraine ndani ya saa moja. Futa za siku zijazo za hisa za Marekani, zinazofanya biashara usiku kucha, ziliuzwa mara moja. Kufikia mapambazuko, swali pekee lililokuwa wazi lilikuwa ni kiasi gani chini ya kufungwa kwa Jumatano mnada wa ufunguzi wa saa 9:30 asubuhi utachapishwa.

Siku, kwa safu moja

Safu moja ina jibu lote — bei ya kufunga iliyotangulia, pengo, chini, juu, kufunga, na kiasi:

WITH
    (
        SELECT argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-23 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2022-02-24 04:00:00')
    ) AS prior_rth_close
SELECT
    round(prior_rth_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round(toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_open,
    round((toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS gap_pct,
    round(minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_low,
    formatDateTime(toTimeZone(argMinIf(window_start, (toFloat64(low), toInt64(toUnixTimestamp(window_start))), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 'America/New_York'), '%H:%i') AS low_et,
    round(maxIf(toFloat64(high), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS rth_high,
    round(toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)), 2) AS rth_close,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_change_pct,
    round((minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) / prior_rth_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS low_vs_prior_pct,
    round((toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) - 1) * 100, 1) AS trough_to_close_pct,
    round((maxIf(toFloat64(high), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) / toFloat64(argMaxIf(close, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) - 1) * 100, 2) AS close_to_high_pct,
    round((toFloat64(argMinIf(open, window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959)) / minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) - 1) * 100, 2) AS open_above_low_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS day_shares_m,
    countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS rth_minute_bars
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-24 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2022-02-24 23:59:00')

Risiti ambayo kila mtu anapaswa kukaa nayo: kiwango cha chini cha kikao cha $318.26 kilichapishwa saa 09:30 ET — dakika ya ufunguzi — -3.4% chini ya bei ya kufunga iliyotangulia. Kuanzia chapisho hilo la kwanza, QQQ ilipanda kwa saa sita na nusu na kumalizika kwa $340.65: +3.4% siku hiyo, mabadiliko ya 7% kutoka chini hadi kufunga kwenye hisa milioni 128. Na kufunga hakukuwa kushuka kuelekea kengele: ilitua chini ya 0.11% tu kutoka kiwango cha juu cha kikao cha $341.04, ikimaanisha siku iliisha kimsingi kwenye kilele chake. Mtu yeyote aliyeuza katika dakika hiyo ya kwanza ya biashara aliuza ndani ya 0.18% ya kiwango cha chini kabisa cha kikao — tiketi halisi ya chini ilichapishwa muda mfupi baada ya msalaba wa ufunguzi, si wakati wake (chapisho la mnada lilikuwa $318.84; kiwango cha chini, $318.26).

Urejeshaji, kwa kipindi cha nusu saa

Vipindi vya nusu saa vinaonyesha umbo la kupanda:

SELECT
    formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'), INTERVAL 30 MINUTE), '%H:%i') AS et_time,
    round(toFloat64(argMax(close, window_start)), 2) AS bucket_close,
    round(min(toFloat64(low)), 2) AS bucket_low,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-24 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2022-02-24 23:59:00')
  AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY et_time
ORDER BY et_time

Ngazi haikuwa safi kabisa — kipindi cha 12:00 ET kilifunga kwa $328.03, chini ya kufunga kwa 11:30 cha $330.29 — lakini mwelekeo haukugeuka kwa uzito, na kipindi cha mwisho kilifunga kwa $340.65, juu ya jedwali. Kiasi cha biashara kilifuata U ya kawaida: hisa milioni 18.6 katika nusu saa ya kwanza na milioni 15 katika ya mwisho, dhidi ya milioni 4.7 karibu na chakula cha mchana. Ni kioo cha ngazi ya kushuka ya 2011. Vikao kama hivi ndivyo sababu ya hadithi za "soko lilishuka kwa uvamizi" kupotosha: futures zilishuka usiku; kipindi cha pesa taslimu kilipanda kutoka dakika yake ya kwanza. Kipi ulichokiona kilitegemea kabisa wakati maagizo yako yalipofika — mada ya mapengo ya usiku hupimwa katika wiki za utulivu.

Si Nasdaq pekee: soko lote liligeuka

Hadithi inayozingatia fahirisi moja ingeacha swali dhahiri wazi: hii ilikuwa hitilafu ya hisa za ukuaji au mgeuko wa soko zima? Jedwali lililo hapa chini linaweka ticker kumi na moja kwenye kigezo kimoja — ETF tatu kuu za fahirisi, kisha mali ambazo kitabu cha mchezo cha mshtuko wa kijiografia hufikia: nishati, dhahabu, Treasuries za muda mrefu, ETF ya tete, na makandarasi wanne wa ulinzi.

SELECT
    ticker,
    round(prior_close, 2) AS prior_close,
    round((rth_open / prior_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS gap_pct,
    round((rth_low / prior_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS low_vs_prior_pct,
    round((rth_high / prior_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS high_vs_prior_pct,
    round((rth_close / prior_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS day_change_pct
FROM (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959 AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2022-02-23')) AS prior_close,
        argMinIf(toFloat64(open), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959 AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2022-02-24')) AS rth_open,
        minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959 AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2022-02-24')) AS rth_low,
        maxIf(toFloat64(high), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959 AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2022-02-24')) AS rth_high,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959 AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2022-02-24')) AS rth_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('QQQ', 'SPY', 'DIA', 'XLE', 'GLD', 'TLT', 'VIXY', 'LMT', 'NOC', 'RTX', 'GD')
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-23 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2022-02-24 23:59:00')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
ORDER BY indexOf(['QQQ', 'SPY', 'DIA', 'XLE', 'GLD', 'TLT', 'VIXY', 'LMT', 'NOC', 'RTX', 'GD'], ticker)

Mgeuko ulikuwa wa soko zima, lakini ukubwa wake haukufuata tu kina cha pengo la asubuhi: QQQ ilifunguka ikiwa na pengo la -3.2% na kufunga +3.4%. SPY na DIA zilifunguka kwa pengo karibu sawa — -2.6% na -2.6% mtawalia — lakini SPY ilifunga +1.5% ikilinganishwa na DIA +0.3%, ikiwa kijani kidogo tu. Fahirisi yenye uzito mkubwa wa ukuaji iligeuka kwa nguvu zaidi; Dow yenye uzito mkubwa wa viwanda, kwa nguvu ndogo zaidi — muundo, si ukubwa wa pengo, ndio unaotofautisha SPY na DIA.

Mahali pesa zilikwenda: mafuta, dhahabu, ulinzi, tete

Sasa soma safu za chini za paneli hiyo hiyo — "biashara ya vita". Nishati ilifungua kwa viwango vyake vya juu na kufunga ikiwa nyekundu: XLE ilipenya +2.1%, ikafanya biashara kwa kina cha -3.4% chini ya kufunga kabla ya ndani ya siku, na kumalizia -0.9%. Dhahabu ilifanya safari ile ile ya kurudi: GLD ilifungua +2.4% na kufunga -0.6%. VIXY — ETF inayoshikilia futures za VIX za muda mfupi, kiwakilishi cha karibu zaidi kinachoweza kuuzwa cha index ya tete — ilipenya +11.1% wakati wa kufungua na kufunga -3%, chini ya kufunga ya siku iliyotangulia. Mali za kawaida za hofu zilifikia kilele hasa wakati vichwa vya habari vilikuwa vibaya zaidi na zikafifia sambamba na ufufuaji wa hisa: mabadiliko ya hisa, yaliyogeuzwa.

Wakandarasi wa ulinzi ndio walikuwa ubaguzi ulioshika. Wote wanne walifunga kijani — LMT +1.7%, NOC +2.4%, RTX +2.1%, GD +1.1% — na Northrop Grumman haikuchapisha chini ya kufunga ya Jumatano wakati wote wa kikao (kiwango chake cha chini cha ndani ya siku kilikuwa +1%), pekee kati ya wanne ambaye hakugusa nyekundu.

Hazina: Ombi la usalama lilikuja baadaye

Kupungua kwa mavuno ya Hazina kunamaanisha bei za hati fungani zinaongezeka — mtiririko wa kawaida wa usalama. Siku ya uvamizi yenyewe, mtiririko huo haukuonekana wazi wakati wa kufunga:

SELECT
    toString(date) AS session,
    round(yield_2_year, 2) AS yield_2_year,
    round(yield_10_year, 2) AS yield_10_year
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date BETWEEN '2022-02-18' AND '2022-03-08'
ORDER BY date

Mavuno ya miaka 10 yalifunga kwa 1.96% mnamo Februari 24, chini kidogo ya 1.99% ya siku iliyotangulia. Kukimbia kwa kweli kulifika wiki iliyofuata: kufikia 2022-03-01 mavuno ya miaka 10 yalichapisha 1.72% — kufunga kwa chini kabisa katika kipindi hiki — na mavuno ya miaka 2 yalishuka kutoka 1.58% hadi 1.31% katika muda huo huo. TLT, ETF ya Hazina ya muda mrefu kwenye paneli hapo juu, ilisimulia hadithi hiyo hiyo ya ndani ya siku: pengo la +1.8% wakati wa ufunguzi ambalo lilififia hadi +0.2% wakati wa kufunga.

Siku Zinazozunguka Tukio

Wiki tatu za kufunga kwa siku mfululizo zinaweka mabadiliko katika muktadha — na kwa utulivu kuamua kama yalishikilia:

SELECT
    toString(et_date) AS session,
    close_usd,
    round(if(prev_close = 0, NULL, (close_usd / prev_close - 1) * 100), 1) AS change_pct,
    shares_m
FROM (
    SELECT et_date, close_usd, shares_m,
           lagInFrame(close_usd) OVER (ORDER BY et_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
    FROM (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS close_usd,
            round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-18 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2022-03-15 23:59:00')
        GROUP BY et_date
    )
)
WHERE et_date >= toDate('2022-02-22') AND et_date <= toDate('2022-03-14')
ORDER BY et_date

Vikao kabla ya uvamizi vilikuwa vyekundu (-1% na -2.6% mnamo Februari 22–23) huku maandalizi yakitawala vichwa vya habari, na siku ya uvamizi yenyewe ilifunga +3.4%, ikifuatiwa na +1.5% nyingine siku iliyofuata. Masoko kuanguka kwa tishio na kupanda kwa tukio ni muundo wa zamani wa kutosha kuwa na methali ya Wall Street inayohusishwa, na rekodi hii ni uthibitisho wake safi zaidi wa kisasa. Lakini endelea kusoma jedwali: linaisha kwa $318.21 mnamo 2022-03-14 — chini ya mahali ambapo hofu ya asubuhi ya uvamizi ilichapishwa.

Je, mwelekeo wa kupanda ulidumu?

Hapana — na sasa madai hayo yana ushahidi:

WITH
    daily AS (
        SELECT
            toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
            round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2) AS c
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-24 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2023-01-01 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY d
    ),
    (SELECT c FROM daily WHERE d = toDate('2022-02-24')) AS invasion_close,
    (
        SELECT round(minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959), 2)
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
          AND window_start >= toDateTime('2022-02-24 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2022-02-24 23:59:00')
    ) AS invasion_low
SELECT
    invasion_close,
    invasion_low,
    toString(minIf(d, c < invasion_low AND d > toDate('2022-02-24'))) AS first_close_below_invasion_low,
    dateDiff('day', toDate('2022-02-24'), minIf(d, c < invasion_low AND d > toDate('2022-02-24'))) AS calendar_days_to_new_low,
    round(minIf(c, d BETWEEN toDate('2022-02-25') AND toDate('2022-03-31')), 2) AS march_low_close,
    toString(argMinIf(d, (c, d), d BETWEEN toDate('2022-02-25') AND toDate('2022-03-31'))) AS march_low_date,
    round((minIf(c, d BETWEEN toDate('2022-02-25') AND toDate('2022-03-31')) / invasion_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS march_low_vs_invasion_close_pct,
    round(minIf(c, d > toDate('2022-02-24')), 2) AS year_low_close,
    toString(argMinIf(d, (c, d), d > toDate('2022-02-24'))) AS year_low_date,
    round((minIf(c, d > toDate('2022-02-24')) / invasion_close - 1) * 100, 1) AS year_low_vs_invasion_close_pct
FROM daily

18 siku za kalenda baada ya uvamizi, tarehe 2022-03-14, QQQ ilifunga chini ya $318.26 ya kiwango cha hofu cha asubuhi ya uvamizi. Kiwango hicho cha kufunga cha Machi cha $318.21 kilikuwa -6.6% chini ya kufunga kwa siku ya uvamizi — na mwaka uliendelea: kufikia 2022-12-28, QQQ ilifunga kwa $260.02, -23.7% chini ya mahali ambapo siku ya uvamizi ilimalizika. Mabadiliko ya Februari 24 yalikuwa halisi, makali — na ya muda mfupi. Mzunguko wa kuongeza viwango vya riba, si vita, ndio ulioamua mwelekeo wa 2022, somo lile lile ambalo mshuko wa Machi 2020 lilifundisha kwa mwelekeo tofauti.

Je, mabadiliko ya ukubwa huu ni nadra kiasi gani?

Kuchambua kila kikao cha QQQ kuanzia 2003 hadi mwisho wa 2025 kunapata kwa usahihi vikao 2 ambavyo vilifanya biashara angalau 3% chini ya bei ya kufunga ya awali ndani ya siku na bado vikamaliza angalau 1% juu yake:

SELECT
    toString(d) AS session,
    low_vs_prior_pct,
    close_vs_prior_pct,
    trough_to_close_pct
FROM (
    SELECT
        d,
        round((lo / prev_c - 1) * 100, 1) AS low_vs_prior_pct,
        round((c / prev_c - 1) * 100, 1) AS close_vs_prior_pct,
        round((c / lo - 1) * 100, 1) AS trough_to_close_pct
    FROM (
        SELECT d, c, lo,
               lagInFrame(c) OVER (ORDER BY d ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_c
        FROM (
            SELECT
                toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
                argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS c,
                minIf(toFloat64(low), (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS lo
            FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
              AND window_start >= toDateTime('2003-01-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-01-01 00:00:00')
            GROUP BY d
        )
    )
    WHERE prev_c > 0 AND isFinite(prev_c)
)
WHERE low_vs_prior_pct <= -3 AND close_vs_prior_pct >= 1
ORDER BY session

Februari 24, 2022 ni mojawapo. Kingine ni 2022-10-13 — kikao kilichofunguliwa saa moja baada ya ripoti ya mfumuko wa bei iliyokuwa ya juu kuliko ilivyotarajiwa, siku nyingine ya kushuka kwa pengo na kufunga kijani. Mabadiliko ya siku ya uvamizi yalikuwa makubwa kati ya hayo mawili: mabadiliko ya 7% kutoka kwenye kiwango cha chini hadi kufunga dhidi ya 5.7%. Miaka ishirini na tatu ya rekodi, na matokeo yote mawili yalitokea mwaka huo huo.

Kile Kipindi Hiki Kinachofundisha

Mitindo mitatu thabiti inaonekana kwenye soko hili. Kwanza: wakati tukio linalotarajiwa sana linapotokea, nafasi za uwekezaji mara nyingi tayari zimechukuliwa — vipindi viwili vyekundu kabla ya uvamizi vilikuwa na matarajio hayo. Pili: mnada wa ufunguzi ndipo hofu iliyokusanyika usiku kucha inapotoweka kwa bei moja, na bei hiyo inaweza kuwa kiwango cha juu au cha chini cha siku hiyo. Tatu: mabadiliko makali ya siku moja yanakuambia kuhusu mtiririko wa siku hiyo, si mwelekeo wa robo mwaja ijayo — wiki zilizofuata kipindi hiki ziliendelea kufikia viwango vipya vya chini. Siku za matukio hulipa ujuzi wa mifumo; zinawaadhibu wale wanaochanganya sura ya kipindi na mwelekeo wa mfumo mzima.

Maelezo ya kiasi cha biashara yanathibitisha nani alikuwa akifanya nini: 128.5 milioni hisa zilifanya kuwa kipindi kizito zaidi katika jedwali la wiki tatu hapo juu, na kiasi kikubwa cha biashara wakati wa kupanda kutoka chini hadi kufunga kunamaanisha ununuzi wa ukubwa halisi ulikutana na uuzaji halisi — si mwendo wa soko tupu. Linganisha ishara hiyo hiyo katika mkutano wa Machi 24, 2020, ambapo kiasi cha imani pia kiliashiria mabadiliko ya hofu, na utofautishe na siku za kuruka nyuma zenye kiasi kidogo ambazo hufifia kipindi kinachofuata.

Maswali ya Mara kwa Mara kuhusu Siku ya Uvamizi

Je, soko la hisa lilifanya nini wakati Urusi ilipovamia Ukraine?

Siku yenyewe — Februari 24, 2022 — ETF ya Nasdaq-100 QQQ ilifungua -3.2% chini huku kiwango chake cha chini kikiwa katika dakika ya kwanza ya kufungua, kisha ikapanda kwa kipindi chote cha biashara na kufunga +3.4%. ETF ya S&P 500 SPY ilifunga +1.5% na ETF ya Dow DIA +0.3%.

Kwa nini hisa zilipanda wakati Urusi ilipovamia Ukraine?

Ukurasa huu hautoi sababu; rekodi ya soko inaonyesha mfuatano — shinikizo kubwa la uuzaji lilionekana kikamilifu wakati wa kufungua saa 9:30, na ununuzi ulitawala kila saa iliyofuata. Mtindo wa kushuka wakati wa tishio na kupanda wakati wa tukio una mifano mingi ya kihistoria.

Je, mafuta na dhahabu vilifanya nini wakati Urusi ilipovamia Ukraine?

Vyote viwili vilipanda kwa kasi wakati wa kufungua na kisha kupungua: ETF ya nishati XLE ilifungua +2.1% na kufunga -0.9%, na ETF ya dhahabu GLD ilifungua +2.4% na kufunga -0.6%. Hisa za ulinzi zilishikilia faida zao: zote nne kuu katika paneli hapo juu zilifunga kwa kijani.

Je, kupanda kwa soko baada ya uvamizi kulidumu?

Hapana. QQQ ilifunga chini ya kiwango chake cha chini cha hofu siku ya uvamizi 18 siku za kalenda baadaye, mnamo 2022-03-14, na kufikia kiwango chake cha chini cha 2022 mnamo 2022-12-28 ilikuwa -23.7% chini ya kufunga siku ya uvamizi.

Je, mabadiliko kama ya Februari 24, 2022 ni ya nadra kiasi gani?

Ni nadra sana. Kuanzia 2003 hadi mwisho wa 2025, ni 2 tu vikao vya QQQ vilivyofanya biashara 3% au zaidi chini ya kufunga kabla ya hapo ndani ya siku na bado kufunga angalau 1% juu — hiki, na 2022-10-13.

Kila paneli hapo juu ni swala lililohifadhiwa na lenye toleo kwenye rekodi ya kihistoria ya soko — panua SQL ili kuona kila kipimo. Unataka kuhisi siku hii badala ya kuisoma? Ni moja ya matukio yanayoweza kuchezwa katika simulator ya biashara ya Strasmore Labs.