Price Return dhidi ya Total Return: Pengo Halisi

Price return dhidi ya total return ni tofauti kati ya kile kinachoonyeshwa na chati ya soko na kile ambacho mtu aliyeshikilia nafasi hiyo hiyo alipata kwa hakika. Price return huhesabu mabadiliko ya bei pekee. Total return huongeza kila dividend iliyolipwa, na kuiwekeza tena kwa bei ya siku ambayo hisa inakwenda ex-dividend. Hivyo, kila malipo huweza kujilimbikiza pamoja na hisa zilizozalisha malipo hayo.

Kiwango cha S&P 500 kinachotajwa kwenye habari ni fahirisi ya bei. Mwenzake wa total return hushikilia kampuni zilezile na kuwekeza tena dividends. Kwa mwaka mmoja, fahirisi hizo mbili huonekana karibu sawa. Kwa kipindi cha miaka ishirini, zinaonyesha matokeo tofauti sana. Pengo kati yake ni kubwa kuliko yield ya mwaka inavyoweza kuashiria.

Kuna tofauti gani kati ya price return na total return?

Price return ni bei ya mwisho ikigawanywa kwa bei ya mwanzo, kisha moja ikatolewa. Kila kiwango cha fahirisi kinachotajwa kwenye televisheni na kila chati ya bei ambayo umewahi kuangalia huonyesha namba hii.

Total return hufanya hesabu hiyo hiyo, lakini hutumia kila dividend ya fedha kununua hisa zaidi kwa bei ya siku yake ya ex-dividend. Jedwali za utendaji wa mifuko na fahirisi za benchmark ambazo mifuko hiyo hupimwa dhidi yake hutumia toleo hili.

Mfano wa kinadharia unaonyesha utaratibu huo kwa uwazi. Nunua hisa kwa $100 inayolipa $2 kwa mwaka, kisha uuze mwaka mmoja baadaye kwa $105. Price return ni 5%. Total return ni takribani 7%. Mwaka huo wa kwanza si wa kipekee. Kinachofanya tofauti hiyo iwe muhimu ni compounding: $2 iliyowekezwa tena hununua sehemu ya hisa nyingine, sehemu hiyo hupokea dividend yake yenyewe mwaka unaofuata, na mfululizo huo miwili hutengana kwa kasi inayoongezeka.

Kabla ya data, kuna jambo moja la kutofautisha. Total return swap ni mkataba wa derivative ambapo upande mmoja huhamisha manufaa na hasara zote za kiuchumi za asset kwa malipo ya financing rate. Ina jina linalofanana na kanuni ya fahirisi iliyoelezwa hapa chini, lakini hakuna uhusiano mwingine. Sehemu iliyosalia ya ukurasa huu inahusu fahirisi na mifuko.

Pengo kwenye S&P 500 ni mkubwa kiasi gani?

$10,000 ziliwekezwa kwenye ETF kubwa zaidi inayofuatilia S&P 500 mwishoni mwa 2005 na kushikiliwa hadi Julai 31, 2026. Mstari wa kwanza hutumia kila dividend siku inapoingia. Mstari wa pili huwekeza tena kila dividend kwa bei ya kufunga ya siku hiyo.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2005-12-01')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY d
),
base AS (
    SELECT argMax(close, d) AS start_px
    FROM daily
    WHERE d <= toDate('2005-12-31')
),
year_end AS (
    SELECT toYear(d) AS year,
           argMax(close, d) AS close,
           max(d) AS last_day
    FROM daily
    WHERE d >= toDate('2006-01-01')
    GROUP BY year
),
reinvest AS (
    SELECT dv.ex_dividend_date AS d,
           log(1 + toFloat64(dv.cash_amount) / dl.close) AS log_growth
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends AS dv
    INNER JOIN daily AS dl ON dl.d = dv.ex_dividend_date
    WHERE dv.ticker = 'SPY'
      AND dv.cash_amount > 0
      AND dv.ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2006-01-01')
      AND dv.ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
)
SELECT ye.year AS year,
       round(10000 * ye.close / any(b.start_px)) AS price_only_usd,
       round(10000 * ye.close / any(b.start_px) * exp(sum(ri.log_growth))) AS reinvested_usd,
       round(100 * (1 - exp(-sum(ri.log_growth))), 1) AS dividend_share_pct
FROM year_end AS ye, reinvest AS ri, base AS b
WHERE ri.d <= ye.last_day
GROUP BY ye.year, ye.close
ORDER BY year

Mstari unaoonyesha bei pekee unaishia kwenye $59956. Mstari wa kuwekeza tena dividends unaishia kwenye $85775. Dividends zinachangia 30.1% ya salio hilo la mwisho, na hakuna sehemu yake inayoonekana kwenye chati ya bei.

Upande wa kushoto wa chati ndipo tofauti hii huwapotosha watu. Mwishoni mwa 2007, mistari hiyo miwili ilikuwa kwenye $11755 na $11971, huku dividends zikiwa na thamani ya 1.8% ya salio. Pengo dogo la mwaka wa kwanza linaweza kuonekana kwa urahisi kama tofauti ya kuzungusha namba. Miaka ishirini ya tofauti hiyo hiyo, kila tofauti ikijumuishwa kwenye iliyotangulia, huleta pengo linaloonekana upande wa kulia.

Je, pengo linaendelea kuongezeka kadiri muda unavyopita?

Mfuko uleule, tarehe ileile ya mwisho, lakini tarehe tano tofauti za kuanza.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2006-07-31')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY d
),
spans AS (
    SELECT y AS years,
           concat(toString(y), '-year') AS horizon,
           subtractYears(toDate('2026-07-31'), y) AS start_date
    FROM (SELECT arrayJoin([1, 3, 5, 10, 20]) AS y)
),
divs AS (
    SELECT dv.ex_dividend_date AS d,
           log(1 + toFloat64(dv.cash_amount) / dl.close) AS log_growth
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends AS dv
    INNER JOIN daily AS dl ON dl.d = dv.ex_dividend_date
    WHERE dv.ticker = 'SPY'
      AND dv.cash_amount > 0
      AND dv.ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
),
endpoints AS (
    SELECT s.horizon AS horizon,
           s.years AS years,
           argMin(dl.close, dl.d) AS start_px,
           argMax(dl.close, dl.d) AS end_px
    FROM spans AS s, daily AS dl
    WHERE dl.d >= s.start_date
    GROUP BY s.horizon, s.years
),
reinvest AS (
    SELECT s.years AS years,
           exp(sum(dvs.log_growth)) AS factor
    FROM spans AS s, divs AS dvs
    WHERE dvs.d > s.start_date
    GROUP BY s.years
)
SELECT e.horizon AS horizon,
       round(100 * (e.end_px / e.start_px - 1), 1) AS price_return_pct,
       round(100 * (e.end_px / e.start_px * r.factor - 1), 1) AS total_return_pct,
       round(100 * (e.end_px / e.start_px) * (r.factor - 1), 1) AS dividend_points_pct
FROM endpoints AS e
INNER JOIN reinvest AS r ON e.years = r.years
ORDER BY e.years

Katika kipindi cha 1-year, return ya bei ilikuwa 18.2% ikilinganishwa na total return ya 19.5%, tofauti ya 1.3 percentage points. Kipindi cha 10-year kinatofautisha 244.3% na 304.5%, sawa na 60.2 points. Katika kipindi cha 20-year, vipimo viwili vilikuwa 485% na 736.9%: tofauti ya 251.9 percentage points.

Mkunjo huo haupandi kwa mstari ulionyooka. Unapanda kwa namna salio linavyoongezeka, kwa sababu kila dividend inayowekezwa tena huongezwa kwenye msingi ambao dividend inayofuata hujengea compounding yake.

Kwa nini dividends za mwaka mmoja huonekana kuwa ndogo

Hapa kuna kila mwaka wa kalenda katika kipindi hicho hicho, ukiwa umegawanywa katika mabadiliko ya bei na mchango wa dividend.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2006-01-01')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY d
),
yearly AS (
    SELECT toYear(d) AS year,
           argMin(close, d) AS first_px,
           argMax(close, d) AS last_px
    FROM daily
    GROUP BY year
),
divs AS (
    SELECT toYear(dv.ex_dividend_date) AS year,
           exp(sum(log(1 + toFloat64(dv.cash_amount) / dl.close))) AS factor
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends AS dv
    INNER JOIN daily AS dl ON dl.d = dv.ex_dividend_date
    WHERE dv.ticker = 'SPY'
      AND dv.cash_amount > 0
    GROUP BY year
)
SELECT y.year AS year,
       round(100 * (y.last_px / y.first_px - 1), 1) AS price_return_pct,
       round(100 * (y.last_px / y.first_px) * (d.factor - 1), 2) AS dividend_points_pct
FROM yearly AS y
INNER JOIN divs AS d ON y.year = d.year
ORDER BY year

Soma mfululizo huo miwili pamoja. Mstari wa bei ndio unaoonekana zaidi, ukibadilika kwa nguvu kuelekea pande zote mbili. Mstari wa dividend ni tulivu: pointi 1.9 katika 2007, pointi 0.58 katika mwaka uliogawanyika hadi Julai 2026, na haukuwa jambo kuu katika miaka iliyobaki. Hakuna safu moja katika sehemu hiyo ambayo ingebadili mtazamo wa mtu kuhusu jambo lolote. Zikiwekwa pamoja na kukua kwa compounding katika safu 20, namba hizo hizo ndogo ndizo zinazoeleza tofauti yote kati ya mistari miwili katika chati ya kwanza. Kuwekeza tena dividend pia ni kununua kiotomatiki kwa bei inayokuwapo siku hiyo, ambayo inafanana kwa karibu na ugawaji wa gharama ya dola. Hiyo ndiyo sababu pia yield ya dividend ya S&P 500 huonekana kuwa namba ndogo, ingawa huwa na umuhimu mkubwa zaidi katika vipindi virefu kuliko ukubwa wake unavyodokeza.

Ni hisa zipi zinaonyesha pengo kubwa zaidi?

Pengo hilo linafuata yield: kampuni inayorejesha zaidi kwa kila dollar ya bei huwapa wamiliki kiasi kikubwa zaidi cha kuwekeza tena. Hapa kuna majina saba yanayojulikana katika kipindi cha miaka kumi hadi Julai 31, 2026, yakiwa yamewekwa kwa annualized ili vipindi viweze kulinganishwa.

WITH daily AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'KO', 'JNJ', 'XOM', 'PG', 'VZ', 'MSFT')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2016-08-01')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker, d
),
px AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMin(close, d) AS start_px,
           argMax(close, d) AS end_px
    FROM daily
    GROUP BY ticker
),
divs AS (
    SELECT dv.ticker AS ticker,
           exp(sum(log(1 + toFloat64(dv.cash_amount) / dl.close))) AS factor
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends AS dv
    INNER JOIN daily AS dl ON dl.ticker = dv.ticker AND dl.d = dv.ex_dividend_date
    WHERE dv.ticker IN ('SPY', 'KO', 'JNJ', 'XOM', 'PG', 'VZ', 'MSFT')
      AND dv.cash_amount > 0
      AND dv.ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2016-08-01')
      AND dv.ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
    GROUP BY dv.ticker
)
SELECT px.ticker AS ticker,
       round(100 * (pow(px.end_px / px.start_px, 0.1) - 1), 2) AS price_cagr_pct,
       round(100 * (pow(px.end_px / px.start_px * divs.factor, 0.1) - 1), 2) AS total_cagr_pct,
       round(100 * (pow(px.end_px / px.start_px * divs.factor, 0.1)
                    - pow(px.end_px / px.start_px, 0.1)), 2) AS dividend_points_pct
FROM px
INNER JOIN divs ON px.ticker = divs.ticker
ORDER BY dividend_points_pct DESC

VZ ina pengo kubwa zaidi la mwaka kati ya 7, likiwa 5.46 percentage points kwa mwaka: -1.51% annualized kwa bei pekee, ikilinganishwa na 3.96% wakati dividends zimewekezwa tena. MSFT iko upande wenye pengo dogo zaidi, ikiwa na 1.53 points. Mambo mawili yanafuata kwa anayelinganisha chati. Chati ya bei hupunguza kwa kiasi kikubwa zaidi utendaji wa payer mwenye yield ya juu kuliko wa payer mwenye yield ya chini. Pia, screen yoyote inayopanga majina kulingana na utendaji wa bei huwapunguza kwa njia isiyo dhahiri payers. Dividend yield iliyo nyuma ya kila jina kati ya haya ndiyo huamua ukubwa wa pengo lake.

Kila toleo linatumika wapi

• Fahirisi za benchmark na taarifa fupi za mifuko hutaja total return. “Total Return Index”, kiambishi “TR”, au maelezo ya “net dividends reinvested” katika maandishi madogo yote yanamaanisha kuwa dividends zimehesabiwa.
• Vyombo vya habari vya kifedha na skrini za bei hutumia price return. “S&P 500 ilifunga ikiwa juu kwa 0.4%” ni mabadiliko ya bei.
• Vichupo vya utendaji katika akaunti za udalali kwa kawaida hutumia total return kwa akaunti, kwa sababu fedha hizo ziliingia humo kwa kweli. Safu ya faida ya nafasi moja mara nyingi huonyesha mabadiliko ya bei dhidi ya cost basis, ambayo si namba hiyo hiyo.
• Backtests na maelezo ya mikakati hutumia toleo lililotolewa na data feed ya mwandishi. Hapo ndipo chanzo cha rekodi nyingi za utendaji zilizoinuliwa bila kutambuliwa.

Tofauti muhimu hutokea unapoweka total return ya mfuko dhidi ya price index. Mfuko huhesabiwa dividends zake, ilhali benchmark haihesabiwi dividends zake. Hilo huupa mfuko mwanzo wa ziada unaolingana na mkondo wote wa dividends wa index. Katika kipindi cha 20-year kilicho juu, kosa hilo la upimaji lina thamani ya 251.9 percentage points, na hakuna hata moja iliyotokana na msimamizi wa mfuko. Ulinganisho wa usawa huweka total return dhidi ya total return. Jinsi returns za kila mwezi zinavyopimwa hufuata hesabu hiyo hiyo kwa kiwango cha kila mwezi, na kukosa siku bora zaidi huonyesha kinachotokea kwenye mstari wa bei wakati vipindi vichache vinaondolewa.

Maswali yanayoulizwa mara kwa mara kuhusu price return dhidi ya total return

Je, S&P 500 ni price index au total return index?

Nambari kuu ni price index: hufuatilia thamani ya soko ya kampuni zilizomo kwenye fahirisi na kupuuza dividends zao. Toleo la total return la fahirisi hiyo hiyo lipo, na huziwekeza tena dividends hizo. Vigezo vya kupimia vya mifuko kwa kawaida hutumia toleo la total return, ilhali habari kwa kawaida hunukuu toleo la price index.

Dividends huongeza kiasi gani kwenye returns za S&P 500?

Katika kipindi cha 10-year kilichoishia Julai 31, 2026, tracker iliyotumika hapa ilipata 244.3% kwa price return, ikilinganishwa na 304.5% baada ya dividends kuwekeza tena. Ndani ya mwaka mmoja wa kalenda, mchango huo huwa mdogo zaidi, takribani 1.9 points katika 2007.

Je, akaunti yangu ya udalali huonyesha price return au total return?

Cash dividends huingia kwenye akaunti, kwa hiyo salio lenyewe tayari linazijumuisha. Safu ya faida ya position mara nyingi hulinganisha price ya sasa na cost basis yako pekee, jambo ambalo huwakilisha price return. Vipimo hivyo viwili hutofautiana kwa kiasi sawa na dividends zilizopokelewa, isipokuwa mpango wa reinvestment ulikuwa unanunua shares zaidi wakati huo.

Je, total return swap ni kitu sawa na total return?

La. Total return swap ni mkataba wa derivative kati ya pande mbili unaobadilisha uchumi kamili wa asset kwa financing rate. Total return kwa maana ya fahirisi ni utaratibu wa kupima performance. Maneno hayo yanaashiria wazo lilelile la price pamoja na income, lakini si instruments zinazohusiana.

Kwa nini fund huonekana kufanya vizuri zaidi inapolinganishwa na price index?

Figure iliyochapishwa na fund inajumuisha dividends zake, ilhali price index haijumuishi dividends zake yenyewe. Ulinganisho huo huipa fund mwanzo wa ziada unaolingana na mkondo wa dividends wa benchmark, yaani 251.9 percentage points katika kipindi cha 20-year kilichotajwa hapo juu.

Kila figure hapa imetokana na query iliyohifadhiwa na yenye version maalumu, inayotumia daily closes na rekodi za dividends zilizowasilishwa. Fungua panel yoyote ili kusoma SQL, au endesha ulinganisho huohuo wa price dhidi ya total return kwenye ticker unayoifuatilia kupitia terminal ya Strasmore.