Jinsi ya Kutambua Mtego wa Dividend Yield

Mtego wa dividend yield ni yield kubwa ya dividend inayotokana na kushuka kwa bei ya hisa, badala ya malipo ya dividend kuwa makubwa. Yield ni dividends za kila mwaka kwa kila hisa zilizogawanywa kwa bei. Kwa hiyo, hisa inayopoteza nusu ya thamani yake huongeza mara mbili yield yake iliyoonyeshwa, bila kampuni kuongeza hata senti moja kwenye hundi inayolipa. Sehemu ya juu ya kila yield screen hujaa majina ambayo tayari soko limeyashusha thamani. Sehemu inayopimika ya majina hayo hupunguza au kusitisha dividend ndani ya mwaka unaofuata. Ukurasa huu hupima sehemu hiyo na kueleza ukaguzi minne unaotenganisha kampuni inayolipa dividend kwa bei nafuu na kampuni iliyovurugika.

Kwa nini dividend yields za juu zaidi hupatikana kwenye hisa zilizoshuka bei zaidi

Yield ina vipengele viwili vinavyobadilika kwa namna tofauti kabisa. Kipengele cha juu ni kiwango cha dividend cha mwaka, kinachoamuliwa na bodi mara chache kwa mwaka na kubaki bila kubadilika kati ya maamuzi hayo. Kipengele cha chini ni bei, inayobadilika kila sekunde wakati soko liko wazi. Kimoja tu kati ya hivyo viwili kinaweza kubadilika haraka. Hivyo, karibu kila ongezeko kubwa la yield husababishwa na bei, si na mabadiliko ya malipo.

Huu hapa ni mgawanyo huo, ukiwa umepimwa kwenye kundi lililowekwa. Kila hisa iliyoorodheshwa nchini Marekani iliyofunga juu ya $5 mnamo Juni 30, 2025, na iliyokuwa imelipa dividend ya kawaida ya fedha kila robo mwaka katika miezi kumi na miwili iliyotangulia, imepangwa katika kundi kulingana na forward yield iliyoonyeshwa siku hiyo: malipo yake ya hivi karibuni ya robo mwaka yakizidishwa mara nne, kisha kugawanywa kwa bei yake ya kufunga. Paneli hiyo huangalia nyuma ili kupima jinsi kila sehemu ya uwiano huo ilivyobadilika katika miezi kumi na miwili iliyotangulia tarehe hiyo.

WITH px_base AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS price
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2025-06-30')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING price >= 5
),
px_prior AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS price
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2024-06-28')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING price > 0
),
rate_base AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(cash_amount) * frequency, ex_dividend_date) AS annual_rate
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND ex_dividend_date > toDate('2024-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2025-06-30')
    GROUP BY ticker
),
rate_prior AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(cash_amount) * frequency, ex_dividend_date) AS annual_rate
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND ex_dividend_date > toDate('2023-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2024-06-28')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT multiIf(100 * rb.annual_rate / b.price >= 8, '8% and up',
               100 * rb.annual_rate / b.price >= 6, '6-8%',
               100 * rb.annual_rate / b.price >= 4, '4-6%',
               100 * rb.annual_rate / b.price >= 2, '2-4%',
               'under 2%') AS yield_band,
       count() AS names,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * rb.annual_rate / b.price, cityHash64(b.ticker)), 2) AS median_yield_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * (b.price / p.price - 1), cityHash64(b.ticker)), 1) AS median_price_change_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * (rb.annual_rate / rp.annual_rate - 1), cityHash64(b.ticker)), 1) AS median_dividend_change_pct
FROM px_base AS b
INNER JOIN px_prior AS p ON b.ticker = p.ticker
INNER JOIN rate_base AS rb ON b.ticker = rb.ticker
INNER JOIN rate_prior AS rp ON b.ticker = rp.ticker
GROUP BY yield_band
ORDER BY median_yield_pct

Mpangilio huo unaelekea upande mmoja. Hisa zilizokuwa katika kundi la 8% and up zilifikia median yield ya 9.69%, huku mabadiliko ya median price katika mwaka uliotangulia yakiwa -2.4%. Kundi la under 2% lilirekodi 11.9% katika kipindi hicho hicho. Upande wa malipo unatofautisha makundi hayo mawili kwa kiwango kidogo: kiwango cha median annualized dividend rate kilibadilika kwa 0% katika kundi la juu, dhidi ya 5.5% katika kundi la chini. Kwa makadirio ya kwanza, kupanga orodha kwa yield ni sawa na kuipanga kwa kushuka kwa bei katika kipindi cha miezi kumi na miwili. Skrini ya hisa zenye dividend yield ya juu zaidi inaonyesha toleo la moja kwa moja la orodha hiyo. Ukurasa huu unaeleza kinachopatikana nyuma ya ukurasa wa kwanza wa orodha hiyo.

Nini kilitokea kwa wenye yield ya juu zaidi katika miezi kumi na miwili iliyofuata

Kundi lilelile, tarehe ileile, lakini sasa tukitazama mbele. Kwa kila daraja, paneli inalinganisha kiwango cha mwaka cha malipo ya mwisho ya kawaida kabla ya Juni 30, 2025 na malipo ya mwisho ya kawaida yaliyofanywa katika miezi kumi na miwili iliyofuata. Kiwango kilicho chini kwa zaidi ya 1% kinahesabiwa kuwa kimepunguzwa. Kutokuwepo kabisa kwa dividend ya kawaida ya fedha katika miezi hiyo kumi na miwili kunahesabiwa kuwa malipo yamesitishwa. Mlipaji aliyebadilisha ratiba analinganishwa kwa kutumia kiwango cha mwaka, hivyo mabadiliko kutoka kila robo mwaka hadi kila mwezi hayahesabiwi kimakosa.

WITH px_base AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS price
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = toDate('2025-06-30')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING price >= 5
),
rate_before AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(cash_amount) * frequency, ex_dividend_date) AS annual_rate
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND ex_dividend_date > toDate('2024-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2025-06-30')
    GROUP BY ticker
),
rate_after AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           argMax(toFloat64(cash_amount) * frequency, ex_dividend_date) AS annual_rate
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency > 0
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND ex_dividend_date > toDate('2025-06-30')
      AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-06-30')
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT multiIf(100 * b.annual_rate / p.price >= 8, '8% and up',
               100 * b.annual_rate / p.price >= 6, '6-8%',
               100 * b.annual_rate / p.price >= 4, '4-6%',
               100 * b.annual_rate / p.price >= 2, '2-4%',
               'under 2%') AS yield_band,
       count() AS payers,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(100 * b.annual_rate / p.price, cityHash64(p.ticker)), 2) AS median_yield_pct,
       round(100 * countIf(ifNull(a.annual_rate, 0) = 0) / count(), 1) AS pct_stopped_paying,
       round(100 * countIf(ifNull(a.annual_rate, 0) > 0 AND a.annual_rate < b.annual_rate * 0.99) / count(), 1) AS pct_reduced_rate,
       round(100 * countIf(ifNull(a.annual_rate, 0) = 0 OR a.annual_rate < b.annual_rate * 0.99) / count(), 1) AS pct_reduced_or_stopped,
       round(100 * countIf(ifNull(a.annual_rate, 0) >= b.annual_rate * 0.99) / count(), 1) AS pct_maintained_or_raised
FROM px_base AS p
INNER JOIN rate_before AS b ON p.ticker = b.ticker
LEFT JOIN rate_after AS a ON p.ticker = a.ticker
GROUP BY yield_band
ORDER BY median_yield_pct

Kati ya majina 330 yaliyokuwa katika daraja la 8% and up mnamo Juni 30, 2025, 36.4% yalipunguza kiwango cha mwaka au hayakufanya malipo yoyote ya kawaida katika miezi kumi na miwili iliyofuata. Hii ilijumuisha 28.8% yaliyopunguza kiwango na 7.6% yaliyositisha malipo. Daraja la under 2%, lenye majina 1369, lilifikia 23.4%. Katika madaraja yote 5, idadi hiyo huongezeka kadiri yield inavyoongezeka.

Soma upande mwingine wa paneli hiyo hiyo kabla ya kufikia hitimisho: 63.6% ya daraja hilo la juu iliweka kiwango bila mabadiliko au kukiongeza. Yield ya juu ni kiwango cha kutokea kwa jambo, si hukumu kuhusu kampuni yoyote moja. Kundi hili linaonyesha kiwango cha msingi ambacho msomaji anakabiliana nacho anaponunua jina lililo juu ya skrini ya uchujaji, na jinsi matokeo yanavyotofautiana zaidi katika sehemu hiyo ya juu. Maelezo ya kile bodi hufanya fedha zinapokuwa chache yamefafanuliwa katika kupunguzwa kwa dividend.

Ukaguzi wa kwanza: je, payout ratio inaacha nafasi yoyote?

Payout ratio ni gawio kwa kila hisa likigawanywa kwa mapato kwa kila hisa. Ikiwa iko chini ya 100%, faida iliyoripotiwa inatosha kulipa gawio na bado hubaki ziada. Ikiwa iko juu ya 100%, kampuni inagawa zaidi ya ilichopata. Tofauti hiyo hugharimiwa kwa kutumia fedha ilizonazo, kuuza mali, au kukopa. Kuwapanga walipaji wa leo kwa makundi ya yield kunaonyesha jinsi vipimo hivyo viwili vinavyohusiana kwa karibu.

SELECT multiIf(dividend_yield * 100 >= 8, '8% and up',
               dividend_yield * 100 >= 6, '6-8%',
               dividend_yield * 100 >= 4, '4-6%',
               dividend_yield * 100 >= 2, '2-4%',
               'under 2%') AS yield_band,
       count() AS payers,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(dividend_yield * 100, cityHash64(ticker)), 2) AS median_yield_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(dividend_yield * price / earnings_per_share * 100,
                                          cityHash64(ticker), earnings_per_share > 0), 1) AS median_payout_ratio_pct,
       round(100 * countIf(earnings_per_share > 0 AND dividend_yield * price > earnings_per_share)
             / countIf(earnings_per_share > 0), 1) AS pct_paying_over_earnings,
       round(100 * countIf(earnings_per_share <= 0) / count(), 1) AS pct_no_positive_eps
FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios
WHERE date = (SELECT max(date) FROM global_markets.stocks_ratios)
  AND price >= 5
  AND market_cap >= 1000000000
  AND dividend_yield > 0
  AND earnings_per_share IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY yield_band
HAVING countIf(earnings_per_share > 0) > 0
ORDER BY median_yield_pct

Median payout ratio huongezeka katika kila kundi, kutoka 21.5% katika kundi la under 2% hadi 160.6% katika kundi la 8% and up. Sehemu ya kampuni zinazogawa zaidi ya zilichopata hufuata mwelekeo huo huo: 2.6% katika kundi la chini ikilinganishwa na 80.4% katika kundi la juu. Zaidi ya 23.3% ya kampuni zilizo katika kundi la juu ziliripoti kutokuwa na earnings per share chanya kabisa, ikilinganishwa na 9.6% katika kundi la chini. Hesabu kamili, ikiwemo hali ambapo ratio iliyo juu ya 100% ni ya kawaida, imeelezwa katika mwongozo wa payout ratio.

Ukaguzi wa pili: je, yield iko juu sana ya kiwango cha kawaida cha kampuni yenyewe

Yield huwa na maana tu inapolinganishwa na rejeo fulani. Median ya soko hujibu swali moja, linaloshughulikiwa katika nini kinachochukuliwa kuwa yield nzuri ya dividend, huku kiwango cha kampuni yenyewe kwa miaka mitano kikijibu swali la kina zaidi: je, hisa hii imewahi kutoa kiwango hiki kikubwa hapo awali? Conagra Brands, kampuni ya vyakula vilivyofungashwa, inafuatilia muundo huo mwezi baada ya mwezi katika kipindi cha miaka mitano iliyopita.

WITH px AS (
    SELECT toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS month_start,
           argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS price,
           max(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS last_day
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'CAG'
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2021-08-01')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY month_start
),
dv AS (
    SELECT ex_dividend_date, toFloat64(cash_amount) AS cash_amount
    FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
    WHERE ticker = 'CAG'
      AND distribution_type = 'recurring'
      AND frequency = 4
      AND cash_amount > 0
      AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2021-01-01')
)
SELECT formatDateTime(px.month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
       formatDateTimeInJodaSyntax(px.month_start, 'MMMM yyyy') AS month_label,
       round(any(px.price), 2) AS price_usd,
       round(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date) * 4, 2) AS annual_dividend_usd,
       round(argMax(dv.cash_amount, dv.ex_dividend_date) * 4 / any(px.price) * 100, 2) AS dividend_yield_pct
FROM px, dv
WHERE dv.ex_dividend_date <= px.last_day
GROUP BY px.month_start
ORDER BY px.month_start

Soma safu hizo tatu pamoja katika miezi yote ya 60. Kiwango cha dividend kwa mwaka kilipanda kutoka $1.25 kwa kila hisa katika August 2021 hadi $0.7 katika July 2026. Bei ilipanda kutoka $33.11 hadi $14.52 katika kipindi hicho. Yield, ambayo ni ya kwanza kugawanywa kwa ya pili, ilipanda kutoka 3.78% hadi 4.82%. Hakuna chochote katika ratiba ya malipo kinachoeleza mabadiliko ya ukubwa huo. Screener iliyopangwa kwa yield huonyesha matokeo ya denominator, lakini haionyeshi mchakato mzima.

Huo ndio uchunguzi wote unaohitajika katika chati moja. Yield inapokuwa mara kadhaa juu ya kiwango chake cha kawaida katika miaka mitano, swali muhimu ni nini kilichobadilika katika biashara ambayo soko linaithamini kwa bei hiyo, si jinsi ratio hiyo inavyoonekana kuvutia leo.

Ukaguzi mbili zaidi kabla ya kutumia screener

Ukaguzi wa tatu ni fedha taslimu. Dividends hulipwa kwa fedha taslimu, ilhali earnings ni takwimu ya uhasibu baada ya gharama zisizohusisha fedha taslimu. Payout ratio iliyo chini ya 100% ya earnings bado inaweza kuwa juu ya 100% ya free cash flow ambayo biashara ilizalisha kwa kweli. Dividend inayofadhiliwa kutoka kwenye mizania ina muda mfupi zaidi wa kuendelea kuliko ile inayofadhiliwa kutoka kwenye shughuli za uendeshaji. Linganisha jumla ya dividends za mwaka na operating cash flow ukitoa capital spending, kwa miaka kadhaa badala ya mwaka mmoja.

Ukaguzi wa nne ni peer median. Yields hutofautiana kwa sekta: regulated utilities, real estate trusts, na pass-through partnerships hulipa mara kadhaa ya kile kinacholipwa na kampuni ya software, na muundo wa biashara unaeleza kiwango hicho. REIT lazima igawanye sehemu kubwa ya mapato yake yanayotozwa kodi ili kudumisha hadhi yake ya kodi. Hata hivyo, ndani ya sekta moja, yield iliyo mara mbili ya peer median ni outlier halisi, na peer group ndiyo benchmark pekee ya haki kwa ajili ya kuipima. Kuna jambo moja la mwisho la kujua: screener inayonukuu trailing yield hujumlisha malipo ambayo tayari yamefanywa. Kwa hiyo, inaweza kutangaza dividend iliyopunguzwa miezi kadhaa iliyopita. Tofauti hiyo imeelezwa katika trailing yield dhidi ya forward dividend yield, na hesabu ya msingi imeelezwa katika kile ambacho dividend yield hupima.

Maswali yanayoulizwa mara kwa mara kuhusu mtego wa dividend yield

Mtego wa dividend yield ni nini?

Ni dividend yield kubwa inayosababishwa na kushuka kwa bei ya hisa, badala ya kuongezeka kwa malipo. Dalili iko kwenye uwiano huo: katika miezi kumi na miwili kabla ya Juni 30, 2025, kundi la 8% and up lilionyesha mabadiliko ya wastani wa bei ya -2.4%, huku kiwango chake cha wastani cha dividend kikibadilika kwa 0%.

Je, dividend yield kubwa inamaanisha kuwa kupunguzwa kwa dividend kunakaribia?

Hakuna yield yoyote moja inayoweza kutabiri jambo hilo, lakini viwango vya msingi vinatofautiana sana kati ya makundi. Katika miezi kumi na miwili baada ya Juni 30, 2025, 36.4% ya kundi la 8% and up ilipunguza au kusitisha malipo, ikilinganishwa na 23.4% ya kundi la under 2%. Asilimia 63.6% iliyobaki ya kundi la juu iliendeleza au kuongeza malipo.

Ni payout ratio gani iliyo juu kupita kiasi?

Katika kampuni ya kawaida ya uendeshaji, kiwango chochote kinachozidi 100% kinamaanisha kuwa dividend inazidi mapato yaliyoripotiwa. Kwenye takwimu za hivi karibuni zilizohifadhiwa, mlipaji wa wastani katika kundi la 8% and up alikuwa na payout ratio ya 160.6%, na 80.4% ya kundi hilo ililipa zaidi ya ilivyopata. REITs na partnerships mara kwa mara huzidi 100% kwa kipimo cha mapato, na badala yake hutathminiwa kwa cash flow.

Unawezaje kukagua dividend kabla ya kuamini yield hiyo?

Vipimo vinne vinatosha kwa sehemu kubwa: payout ratio ikilinganishwa na mapato, jumla ya malipo ya dividend ikilinganishwa na free cash flow, yield ya sasa ikilinganishwa na kiwango cha kampuni hiyo katika kipindi cha miaka kadhaa, na yield ikilinganishwa na median ya kampuni rika katika sekta yake. Kila kimoja ni ulinganisho, na yield inayotajwa kwenye kichwa cha habari peke yake haitoi ulinganisho wowote kati ya hiyo.

Kila takwimu hapo juu imetokana na query iliyohifadhiwa na yenye toleo, iliyotumia rekodi zilizowasilishwa za dividends pamoja na bei halisi za kufunga. Fungua SQL ya paneli yoyote, au endesha uchujaji huo huo mwenyewe kwenye terminal ya Strasmore.