market-history — 5 answered market questions

Growth of one dollar: holding all year vs holding only November through April

most recentas of 2026-08-03 ranking 21×3read in context →

Growth of one dollar: holding all year vs holding only November through April — 21 rows by 3 columns, computed 2026-08-03 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
year	buy_and_hold_growth	winter_only_growth
2006	1.13	1.09
2007	1.28	1.17
2008	1.2	1.05
2009	0.76	0.94
2010	1.03	1.08
2011	1.18	1.24
2012	1.21	1.39
2013	1.38	1.57
2014	1.63	1.68
2015	1.8	1.74
2016	1.78	1.72
2017	2.06	1.93
2018	2.29	1.99
2019	2.54	2.16
2020	2.51	2.06
2021	3.61	2.64
2022	3.56	2.37
2023	3.59	2.55
2024	4.34	3.06
2025	4.79	2.98
2026	6.21	3.14

the exact SQL behind every number

WITH monthly AS (
    SELECT toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS month_start,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS month_close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2005-04-01')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-04-30')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY month_start
),
pairs AS (
    SELECT toYear(apr_m.month_start) + 1 AS year,
           toFloat64(oct_m.month_close) / toFloat64(apr_m.month_close) AS summer_ratio,
           toFloat64(apr_next.month_close) / toFloat64(oct_m.month_close) AS winter_ratio
    FROM monthly AS apr_m
    INNER JOIN monthly AS oct_m ON oct_m.month_start = addMonths(apr_m.month_start, 6)
    INNER JOIN monthly AS apr_next ON apr_next.month_start = addMonths(apr_m.month_start, 12)
    WHERE toMonth(apr_m.month_start) = 4
)
SELECT year,
       round(exp(sum(log(summer_ratio * winter_ratio)) OVER (ORDER BY year)), 2) AS buy_and_hold_growth,
       round(exp(sum(log(winter_ratio)) OVER (ORDER BY year)), 2) AS winter_only_growth
FROM pairs
ORDER BY year

More from this analysisDoes Sell in May and Go Away Work?

S&P 500 tracker: May to October vs November to April, season by season ranking 21×3 → SPY distributions by ex-dividend month: inside the May to October window vs outside it ranking 19×3 → Average S&P 500 tracker return by calendar month, May 2005 through April 2026 table 12×5 → The seasonal gap by era: average half-year returns and the spread between them table 3×6 → See all 2,173 queries →