Leveraged ETF Rebalancing Into the Close
The twelve biggest 2025 index moves and the reset trade each one requiresseries ·
2026-09-22 · 12×6
The final half hour on 2025's largest-move session, against a typical 2025 sessionseries ·
2026-09-22 · 31×3
2025 sessions by index move size, and the 3x reset each bucket impliesranking ·
2026-09-22 · 5×3
Share of session volume printed in the 4:00 p.m. minute, July to December 2025ranking ·
2026-09-22 · 8×4
The twelve biggest 2025 index moves and the reset trade each one requires
The twelve biggest 2025 index moves and the reset trade each one requires
| session_date | move_label | direction | abs_move_pct | trade_2x_pct_of_assets | trade_3x_pct_of_assets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-09 | April 9, 2025 | higher | 12 | 24 | 72 |
| 2025-04-04 | April 4, 2025 | lower | 6.21 | 12.42 | 37.26 |
| 2025-04-03 | April 3, 2025 | lower | 5.35 | 10.7 | 32.1 |
| 2025-04-10 | April 10, 2025 | lower | 4.25 | 8.5 | 25.5 |
| 2025-05-12 | May 12, 2025 | higher | 4.07 | 8.14 | 24.42 |
| 2025-03-10 | March 10, 2025 | lower | 3.88 | 7.76 | 23.28 |
| 2025-10-10 | October 10, 2025 | lower | 3.47 | 6.94 | 20.82 |
| 2025-04-16 | April 16, 2025 | lower | 3.02 | 6.04 | 18.12 |
| 2025-01-27 | January 27, 2025 | lower | 2.91 | 5.82 | 17.46 |
| 2025-04-24 | April 24, 2025 | higher | 2.81 | 5.62 | 16.86 |
| 2025-02-27 | February 27, 2025 | lower | 2.78 | 5.56 | 16.68 |
| 2025-03-06 | March 6, 2025 | lower | 2.75 | 5.5 | 16.5 |
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
toString(date) AS session_date,
concat(monthName(date), ' ', toString(toDayOfMonth(date)), ', ', toString(toYear(date))) AS move_label,
if(move_pct >= 0, 'higher', 'lower') AS direction,
abs(move_pct) AS abs_move_pct,
round(abs(move_pct) * 2, 2) AS trade_2x_pct_of_assets,
round(abs(move_pct) * 6, 2) AS trade_3x_pct_of_assets
FROM
(
SELECT
date,
round(100 * (close_px / lagInFrame(close_px)
OVER (ORDER BY date ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1), 2) AS move_pct
FROM
(
SELECT
date,
max(toFloat64(close)) AS close_px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'QQQ'
AND date >= '2024-12-16'
AND date <= '2025-12-31'
GROUP BY date
)
)
WHERE date >= '2025-01-02'
ORDER BY abs_move_pct DESC
LIMIT 12
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2025 sessions by index move size, and the 3x reset each bucket implies
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