fed funds futures — 4 answered market questions

TLT call deltas read as implied probabilities: chain of Sep 15, 2025, expiring Sep 19

most recentas of 2026-08-03 ranking 9×4read in context →

TLT call deltas read as implied probabilities: chain of Sep 15, 2025, expiring Sep 19 — 9 rows by 4 columns, computed 2026-08-03 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
strike	implied_prob_above_pct	implied_vol_pct	contract_volume
85	97.8	28.7	48
88	90.9	16	1466
89	81.2	15.3	946
90	59	13.8	11026
91	30.7	15.2	5166
92	16.3	15.6	9065
93	5.6	17.9	2195
94	3.7	21.6	1931
95	1.4	22.1	2739

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT round(toFloat64(strike_price), 0) AS strike,
       round(avg(delta) * 100, 1) AS implied_prob_above_pct,
       round(avg(implied_volatility) * 100, 1) AS implied_vol_pct,
       sum(volume) AS contract_volume
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'TLT'
  AND date = toDate('2025-09-15')
  AND expiration_date = toDate('2025-09-19')
  AND delta > 0
  AND iv_converged = 1
  AND volume > 0
  AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.06
GROUP BY strike
ORDER BY strike

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