Five-session move in short Treasury yields into each 2025 FOMC decision day
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-03, from How Markets Price Fed Rate Odds.
| meeting | m3_change_bps | y1_change_bps |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 | -5 | -3 |
| Mar 19 | -2 | 3 |
| May 7 | 3 | 15 |
| Jun 18 | -3 | 2 |
| Jul 30 | 0 | 4 |
| Sep 17 | -7 | -6 |
| Oct 29 | -3 | 15 |
| Dec 10 | -3 | 1 |
- Rows × columns
- 8 × 3
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
meeting |
text | 8 distinct values (Dec 10, Jan 29, Jul 30…) | |
m3_change_bps |
number | -7 to 3 | |
y1_change_bps |
number | -6 to 15 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH d AS (
SELECT date,
toFloat64(yield_3_month) AS m3,
toFloat64(yield_1_year) AS y1,
lagInFrame(toFloat64(yield_3_month), 5) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 5 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS m3_five_before,
lagInFrame(toFloat64(yield_1_year), 5) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 5 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS y1_five_before
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= toDate('2024-11-01')
AND date <= toDate('2025-12-31')
AND yield_3_month IS NOT NULL
AND yield_1_year IS NOT NULL
)
SELECT concat(formatDateTime(date, '%b'), ' ', toString(toDayOfMonth(date))) AS meeting,
round((m3 - m3_five_before) * 100, 1) AS m3_change_bps,
round((y1 - y1_five_before) * 100, 1) AS y1_change_bps
FROM d
WHERE date IN (toDate('2025-01-29'), toDate('2025-03-19'), toDate('2025-05-07'),
toDate('2025-06-18'), toDate('2025-07-30'), toDate('2025-09-17'),
toDate('2025-10-29'), toDate('2025-12-10'))
ORDER BY date
Work with this data in your AI assistant
Opens ready to query, with this page's data. Free, no account.