The Low-Volatility Anomaly
Growth of $100: a calm name (KO), the market (SPY), a wild name (NVDA), weeklyseries ·
2026-08-22 · 115×4
Annualized volatility vs total return, 25 large caps, calmest to wildest (~2 years)ranking ·
2026-08-22 · 25×3
Volatility thirds: median return, and the range from worst to best name in eachtable ·
2026-08-22 · 3×6
Growth of $100: a calm name (KO), the market (SPY), a wild name (NVDA), weekly
Growth of $100: a calm name (KO), the market (SPY), a wild name (NVDA), weekly
| week | ko_calm | spy_market | nvda_wild |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-10 | 99.4 | 100.1 | 102 |
| 2024-06-17 | 99.7 | 100.3 | 98.2 |
| 2024-06-24 | 101.1 | 100.3 | 95.4 |
| 2024-07-01 | 101.2 | 102.3 | 97.2 |
| 2024-07-08 | 101.2 | 103.2 | 99.8 |
| 2024-07-15 | 103.7 | 101.2 | 91.2 |
| 2024-07-22 | 106.5 | 100.4 | 87.4 |
| 2024-07-29 | 110.1 | 98.3 | 82.9 |
| 2024-08-05 | 109.1 | 98.3 | 80.9 |
| 2024-08-12 | 109.9 | 102.2 | 96.3 |
| 2024-08-19 | 110.8 | 103.6 | 99.9 |
| 2024-08-26 | 115.1 | 103.9 | 92.3 |
| 2024-09-02 | 113 | 99.6 | 79.5 |
| 2024-09-09 | 113.4 | 103.6 | 92 |
| 2024-09-16 | 113.8 | 104.7 | 89.7 |
| 2024-09-23 | 114 | 105.3 | 93.8 |
| 2024-09-30 | 111.4 | 105.6 | 96.5 |
| 2024-10-07 | 110.5 | 106.8 | 104.2 |
| 2024-10-14 | 111.8 | 107.8 | 106.7 |
| 2024-10-21 | 106.3 | 106.8 | 109.4 |
| 2024-10-28 | 103.2 | 105.3 | 104.7 |
| 2024-11-04 | 101.5 | 110.3 | 114 |
| 2024-11-11 | 98 | 108 | 109.7 |
| 2024-11-18 | 101.5 | 109.8 | 109.7 |
| 2024-11-25 | 101.8 | 111.1 | 106.9 |
| 2024-12-02 | 99.3 | 112.1 | 110.1 |
| 2024-12-09 | 100.3 | 111.4 | 103.7 |
| 2024-12-16 | 99.4 | 108.9 | 104.3 |
| 2024-12-23 | 99.2 | 109.7 | 106 |
| 2024-12-30 | 98 | 109.1 | 111.8 |
| 2025-01-06 | 97 | 107 | 105 |
| 2025-01-13 | 99.6 | 110.2 | 106.5 |
| 2025-01-20 | 98.3 | 112.1 | 110.2 |
| 2025-01-27 | 100.8 | 111 | 92.8 |
| 2025-02-03 | 101.4 | 110.8 | 100.4 |
| 2025-02-10 | 109.4 | 112.4 | 107.3 |
| 2025-02-17 | 113.4 | 110.6 | 103.8 |
| 2025-02-24 | 113.1 | 109.5 | 96.7 |
| 2025-03-03 | 113.4 | 106.2 | 87.1 |
| 2025-03-10 | 109.8 | 103.8 | 93.9 |
| 2025-03-17 | 109 | 104 | 90.9 |
| 2025-03-24 | 111.8 | 102.5 | 84.7 |
| 2025-03-31 | 111.1 | 93.2 | 72.9 |
| 2025-04-07 | 113.3 | 98.4 | 85.6 |
| 2025-04-14 | 115.9 | 97 | 78.4 |
| 2025-04-21 | 114.2 | 101.5 | 85.8 |
| 2025-04-28 | 113.8 | 104.5 | 88.4 |
| 2025-05-05 | 112 | 104 | 90.1 |
| 2025-05-12 | 114.4 | 109.6 | 104.6 |
| 2025-05-19 | 114 | 106.8 | 101.5 |
| 2025-05-26 | 114.5 | 108.7 | 104.2 |
| 2025-06-02 | 113.3 | 110.4 | 109.5 |
| 2025-06-09 | 112.8 | 110.1 | 109.7 |
| 2025-06-16 | 109.3 | 109.6 | 111.1 |
| 2025-06-23 | 111.7 | 113.4 | 121.9 |
| 2025-06-30 | 113.3 | 115.3 | 123.1 |
| 2025-07-07 | 111 | 115 | 127.4 |
| 2025-07-14 | 110.9 | 115.7 | 133.2 |
| 2025-07-21 | 109.8 | 117.4 | 134.1 |
| 2025-07-28 | 109.3 | 114.6 | 134.2 |
| 2025-08-04 | 111.7 | 117.5 | 141.3 |
| 2025-08-11 | 111.1 | 118.6 | 139.5 |
| 2025-08-18 | 111.4 | 119 | 137.6 |
| 2025-08-25 | 109.6 | 118.9 | 134.7 |
| 2025-09-01 | 107.9 | 119.3 | 129.1 |
| 2025-09-08 | 106.4 | 121.2 | 137.4 |
| 2025-09-15 | 105.5 | 122.4 | 136.4 |
| 2025-09-22 | 104.2 | 122 | 137.7 |
| 2025-09-29 | 105.8 | 123.4 | 145 |
| 2025-10-06 | 106.5 | 120.4 | 141.5 |
| 2025-10-13 | 108.7 | 122.5 | 141.6 |
| 2025-10-20 | 110.7 | 124.8 | 144 |
| 2025-10-27 | 109.4 | 125.7 | 156.5 |
| 2025-11-03 | 112 | 123.7 | 145.5 |
| 2025-11-10 | 113 | 123.9 | 147.1 |
| 2025-11-17 | 115.9 | 121.5 | 138.3 |
| 2025-11-24 | 116.1 | 126 | 136.8 |
| 2025-12-01 | 111.1 | 126.4 | 141 |
| 2025-12-08 | 112 | 125.7 | 135.3 |
| 2025-12-15 | 111.3 | 125.5 | 139.9 |
| 2025-12-22 | 111 | 127.3 | 147.3 |
| 2025-12-29 | 109.8 | 126 | 145.9 |
| 2026-01-05 | 112 | 127.9 | 142.9 |
| 2026-01-12 | 111.8 | 127.5 | 143.9 |
| 2026-01-19 | 115.7 | 127.1 | 145.1 |
| 2026-01-26 | 118.9 | 127.6 | 147.9 |
| 2026-02-02 | 125.5 | 127.3 | 143.3 |
| 2026-02-09 | 124.9 | 125.7 | 141.3 |
| 2026-02-16 | 126.8 | 127.1 | 146.7 |
| 2026-02-23 | 129.5 | 126.5 | 136.9 |
| 2026-03-02 | 122.4 | 124 | 137.4 |
| 2026-03-09 | 122.8 | 122.1 | 139.3 |
| 2026-03-16 | 118.7 | 119.6 | 133.7 |
| 2026-03-23 | 120.2 | 116.9 | 129.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | 121.8 | 120.9 | 137.1 |
| 2026-04-06 | 123 | 125.2 | 145.8 |
| 2026-04-13 | 120.3 | 130.9 | 155.9 |
| 2026-04-20 | 121.7 | 131.6 | 160.9 |
| 2026-04-27 | 124.8 | 132.9 | 153.4 |
| 2026-05-04 | 124.5 | 136 | 166.3 |
| 2026-05-11 | 128.4 | 136.3 | 174.2 |
| 2026-05-18 | 129.4 | 137.5 | 166.4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 125.5 | 139.5 | 163.2 |
| 2026-06-01 | 126.3 | 136 | 158.5 |
| 2026-06-08 | 131.2 | 136.7 | 158.6 |
| 2026-06-15 | 126.1 | 137.6 | 162.5 |
| 2026-06-22 | 131.2 | 134.4 | 148.2 |
| 2026-06-29 | 133.4 | 137.3 | 150.4 |
| 2026-07-06 | 132.6 | 139.2 | 163.1 |
| 2026-07-13 | 129.5 | 137 | 156.6 |
| 2026-07-20 | 130.6 | 136.2 | 160 |
| 2026-07-27 | 139.1 | 137.7 | 155.2 |
| 2026-08-03 | 138.2 | 142.6 | 173.1 |
| 2026-08-10 | 139.3 | 143.1 | 174 |
| 2026-08-17 | 144.6 | 141.4 | 166.5 |
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH d AS (
SELECT ticker,
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS dt,
argMax(toFloat64(close), toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS c
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('KO','SPY','NVDA')
AND window_start >= now() - INTERVAL 800 DAY
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY ticker, dt
),
r AS (
SELECT ticker, dt,
c / lagInFrame(c) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY dt) - 1 AS ret
FROM d
),
f AS (
SELECT ticker, dt, ret FROM r WHERE ret IS NOT NULL AND ret > -0.5 AND ret < 0.5
),
cum AS (
SELECT ticker, dt,
100 * exp(sum(log(1 + ret)) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY dt)) AS idx
FROM f
),
wk AS (
SELECT ticker, toMonday(dt) AS week, argMax(idx, dt) AS wv
FROM cum GROUP BY ticker, week
)
SELECT week,
round(maxIf(wv, ticker = 'KO'), 1) AS ko_calm,
round(maxIf(wv, ticker = 'SPY'), 1) AS spy_market,
round(maxIf(wv, ticker = 'NVDA'), 1) AS nvda_wild
FROM wk
GROUP BY week
ORDER BY week
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