Ratio Spreads: Breakevens and Naked Risk
AAPL 25-session moves since January 2021, by sizeranking ·
2026-08-13 · 6×3
AAPL 25-session moves since January 2021, by size
AAPL 25-session moves since January 2021, by size
| move_bucket | window_count | share_of_windows_pct |
|---|---|---|
| down more than 5% | 299 | 21.7 |
| down 0 to 5% | 272 | 19.8 |
| up 0 to 5% | 292 | 21.2 |
| up 5 to 10% | 283 | 20.6 |
| up 10 to 15% | 149 | 10.8 |
| up more than 15% | 80 | 5.8 |
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
daily AS
(
SELECT
date,
toFloat64(max(close)) AS close_px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'AAPL'
AND date >= '2021-01-04'
AND date <= '2026-07-31'
GROUP BY date
),
indexed AS
(
SELECT
date,
close_px,
row_number() OVER (ORDER BY date) AS n
FROM daily
),
moves AS
(
SELECT 100 * (b.close_px / a.close_px - 1) AS fwd_move_pct
FROM indexed AS a
INNER JOIN indexed AS b ON b.n = a.n + 25
),
totals AS
(
SELECT count() AS all_windows FROM moves
)
SELECT
multiIf(
fwd_move_pct < -5, 'down more than 5%',
fwd_move_pct < 0, 'down 0 to 5%',
fwd_move_pct < 5, 'up 0 to 5%',
fwd_move_pct < 10, 'up 5 to 10%',
fwd_move_pct < 15, 'up 10 to 15%',
'up more than 15%') AS move_bucket,
count() AS window_count,
round(100 * count() / any(t.all_windows), 1) AS share_of_windows_pct
FROM moves AS m
CROSS JOIN totals AS t
GROUP BY move_bucket
ORDER BY min(m.fwd_move_pct)
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