Implied daily move (IV / 16) against realized daily movement, SPY by month
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from What Is VIX1D? The 1-Day Volatility Index.
| month | month_label | implied_daily_move_pct | realized_stdev_pct | realized_avg_move_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | Jul 2025 | 0.93 | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| 2025-08-01 | Aug 2025 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| 2025-09-01 | Sep 2025 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| 2025-10-01 | Oct 2025 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.61 |
| 2025-11-01 | Nov 2025 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| 2025-12-01 | Dec 2025 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| 2026-01-01 | Jan 2026 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| 2026-02-01 | Feb 2026 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| 2026-03-01 | Mar 2026 | 1.31 | 1.15 | 0.91 |
| 2026-04-01 | Apr 2026 | 1.08 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| 2026-05-01 | May 2026 | 0.96 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jun 2026 | 0.98 | 1.11 | 0.85 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jul 2026 | 0.92 | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| 2026-08-01 | Aug 2026 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 0.56 |
- Rows × columns
- 14 × 5
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
month |
date | 2025-07-01 to 2026-08-01 | |
month_label |
text | 14 distinct values (Apr 2026, Aug 2025, Aug 2026…) | |
implied_daily_move_pct |
number | 0.83 to 1.31 | percent |
realized_stdev_pct |
number | 0.41 to 1.15 | percent |
realized_avg_move_pct |
number | 0.33 to 0.91 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH iv AS
(
SELECT
toStartOfMonth(date) AS month,
avg(implied_volatility) * 100 AS iv_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
AND date >= toStartOfMonth(today() - 400)
AND iv_converged = 1
AND volume > 0
AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
GROUP BY month
),
daily AS
(
SELECT
date,
close_f / prev_close - 1 AS ret
FROM
(
SELECT
date,
close_f,
lagInFrame(close_f) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
FROM
(
SELECT date, avg(toFloat64(close)) AS close_f
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND date >= toStartOfMonth(today() - 400) - 10
GROUP BY date
)
)
WHERE prev_close > 0
),
realized AS
(
SELECT
toStartOfMonth(date) AS month,
stddevSamp(ret) * 100 AS stdev_pct,
avg(abs(ret)) * 100 AS avg_abs_pct
FROM daily
GROUP BY month
HAVING count() >= 15
)
SELECT
toString(i.month) AS month,
formatDateTime(i.month, '%b %Y') AS month_label,
round(i.iv_pct / 16, 2) AS implied_daily_move_pct,
round(r.stdev_pct, 2) AS realized_stdev_pct,
round(r.avg_abs_pct, 2) AS realized_avg_move_pct
FROM iv AS i
INNER JOIN realized AS r ON i.month = r.month
ORDER BY i.month
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