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Implied daily move (IV / 16) against realized daily movement, SPY by month

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from What Is VIX1D? The 1-Day Volatility Index.

as of series 14×5read in context →
Implied daily move (IV / 16) against realized daily movement, SPY by month — 14 rows by 5 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
monthmonth_labelimplied_daily_move_pctrealized_stdev_pctrealized_avg_move_pct
2025-07-01Jul 20250.930.410.33
2025-08-01Aug 20250.860.750.57
2025-09-01Sep 20250.830.450.41
2025-10-01Oct 20250.980.860.61
2025-11-01Nov 20251.050.970.78
2025-12-01Dec 20250.840.530.42
2026-01-01Jan 20260.880.650.44
2026-02-01Feb 20261.030.840.67
2026-03-01Mar 20261.311.150.91
2026-04-01Apr 20261.080.740.65
2026-05-01May 20260.960.610.54
2026-06-01Jun 20260.981.110.85
2026-07-01Jul 20260.920.760.59
2026-08-01Aug 20260.840.740.56
Rows × columns
14 × 5
Period covered
to
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Implied daily move (IV / 16) against realized daily movement, SPY by month, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
month date 2025-07-01 to 2026-08-01
month_label text 14 distinct values (Apr 2026, Aug 2025, Aug 2026…)
implied_daily_move_pct number 0.83 to 1.31 percent
realized_stdev_pct number 0.41 to 1.15 percent
realized_avg_move_pct number 0.33 to 0.91 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
WITH iv AS
(
    SELECT
        toStartOfMonth(date)          AS month,
        avg(implied_volatility) * 100 AS iv_pct
    FROM global_markets.options_greeks
    WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
      AND date >= toStartOfMonth(today() - 400)
      AND iv_converged = 1
      AND volume > 0
      AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
      AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
    GROUP BY month
),
daily AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        close_f / prev_close - 1 AS ret
    FROM
    (
        SELECT
            date,
            close_f,
            lagInFrame(close_f) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
        FROM
        (
            SELECT date, avg(toFloat64(close)) AS close_f
            FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
            WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
              AND date >= toStartOfMonth(today() - 400) - 10
            GROUP BY date
        )
    )
    WHERE prev_close > 0
),
realized AS
(
    SELECT
        toStartOfMonth(date)  AS month,
        stddevSamp(ret) * 100 AS stdev_pct,
        avg(abs(ret)) * 100   AS avg_abs_pct
    FROM daily
    GROUP BY month
    HAVING count() >= 15
)
SELECT
    toString(i.month)                AS month,
    formatDateTime(i.month, '%b %Y') AS month_label,
    round(i.iv_pct / 16, 2)          AS implied_daily_move_pct,
    round(r.stdev_pct, 2)            AS realized_stdev_pct,
    round(r.avg_abs_pct, 2)          AS realized_avg_move_pct
FROM iv AS i
INNER JOIN realized AS r ON i.month = r.month
ORDER BY i.month

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