pop_spread

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH issues AS
(
    SELECT
        ticker,
        min(listing_date)                 AS listing_dt,
        max(toFloat64(final_issue_price)) AS offer_price
    FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos
    WHERE listing_date >= '2021-01-01'
      AND listing_date <  '2026-07-01'
      AND final_issue_price > 0
      AND issuer_name NOT ILIKE '%acquisition%'
      AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
    GROUP BY ticker
),
debut AS
(
    SELECT
        i.offer_price                     AS offer_price,
        argMin(toFloat64(d.open), d.date) AS first_open
    FROM issues AS i
    INNER JOIN global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs AS d ON d.ticker = i.ticker
    WHERE d.date >= i.listing_dt
      AND d.date <  i.listing_dt + 7
    GROUP BY i.ticker, i.offer_price
)
SELECT
    band,
    count()                                        AS listing_count,
    round(100 * count() / sum(count()) OVER (), 1) AS share_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT
        round(100 * (first_open / offer_price - 1), 2) AS pop_pct,
        multiIf(pop_pct < -10, 1, pop_pct < 0, 2, pop_pct < 10, 3, pop_pct < 30, 4, pop_pct < 60, 5, 6) AS band_rank,
        multiIf(pop_pct < -10, 'opened more than 10% below offer',
                pop_pct <   0, 'opened 0-10% below offer',
                pop_pct <  10, 'opened 0-10% above offer',
                pop_pct <  30, 'opened 10-30% above offer',
                pop_pct <  60, 'opened 30-60% above offer',
                               'opened more than 60% above offer') AS band
    FROM debut
    WHERE first_open > 0
)
GROUP BY band, band_rank
ORDER BY band_rank