How often front volatility sat above back volatility
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from What Is a Calendar Spread in Options?.
| symbol | inverted_days_pct | avg_slope_pts | obs_count |
|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 62 | 0.72 | 274 |
| AAPL | 40.1 | 0.47 | 274 |
| MSFT | 28.8 | 0.22 | 274 |
| NVDA | 27 | -1.44 | 274 |
| SPY | 22.3 | -0.8 | 274 |
- Rows × columns
- 5 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
symbol |
text | 5 distinct values (AAPL, KO, MSFT…) | |
inverted_days_pct |
number | 22.3 to 62 | percent |
avg_slope_pts |
number | -1.44 to 0.72 | |
obs_count |
number | every row is 274 | count |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
SELECT
symbol,
round(100 * countIf(slope_pts > 0) / count(), 1) AS inverted_days_pct,
round(avg(slope_pts), 2) AS avg_slope_pts,
count() AS obs_count
FROM
(
SELECT
underlying_symbol AS symbol,
date,
(avgIf(implied_volatility, days_to_expiry BETWEEN 7 AND 25)
- avgIf(implied_volatility, days_to_expiry BETWEEN 60 AND 120)) * 100 AS slope_pts
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'SPY', 'KO')
AND date >= today() - 400
AND date <= today() - 2
AND iv_converged = 1
AND volume > 0
AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
GROUP BY symbol, date
HAVING countIf(days_to_expiry BETWEEN 7 AND 25) > 0
AND countIf(days_to_expiry BETWEEN 60 AND 120) > 0
)
GROUP BY symbol
ORDER BY inverted_days_pct DESC
Run your own version of this
The same 22 years of US equities and 12 years of options data are queryable in SQL or plain English. A free account runs 100 queries a day and takes no card.
More from this analysisWhat Is a Calendar Spread in Options?
Near the money implied volatility by expiry band, three names
ranking 6×4
→
Theta and vega across expiry bands, near the money AAPL
ranking 6×3
→
AAPL front band against back band implied volatility, trailing months
series 81×4
→
One SPY $600 LEAPS call's price over two years (expired Jan 16 2026)
series 470×2
→
One SPY $740 call's price over its 7-week life (expired Jun 18 2026)
series 31×2
→
The stock both options tracked: SPY, May 1 to Jun 15 2026
series 31×3
→
See all 2,170 queries →