Effective spread split into realized spread and adverse selection, by half hour
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-15, from Trade Markouts Explained: Execution Quality.
| et_time | effective_spread_bps | realized_spread_bps | adverse_selection_bps | fill_count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | 10.651 | 2.338 | 8.313 | 156976 |
| 10:00 | 8.053 | 1.892 | 6.161 | 93545 |
| 10:30 | 7.573 | -9.091 | 16.665 | 95266 |
| 11:00 | 7.079 | 1.666 | 5.414 | 87234 |
| 11:30 | 7.704 | -4.864 | 12.568 | 69850 |
| 12:00 | 5.624 | 3.918 | 1.707 | 48500 |
| 12:30 | 5.151 | 0.038 | 5.112 | 45567 |
| 13:00 | 4.667 | 0.932 | 3.735 | 39236 |
| 13:30 | 5.598 | -0.034 | 5.632 | 43249 |
| 14:00 | 4.59 | -1.134 | 5.723 | 38018 |
| 14:30 | 4.504 | 1.256 | 3.249 | 48662 |
| 15:00 | 5.29 | -1.615 | 6.905 | 64389 |
| 15:30 | 6.184 | -1.08 | 7.265 | 69101 |
- Rows × columns
- 13 × 5
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
et_time |
date | 09:30 to 15:30 | |
effective_spread_bps |
number | 4.504 to 10.651 | |
realized_spread_bps |
number | -9.091 to 3.918 | |
adverse_selection_bps |
number | 1.707 to 16.665 | |
fill_count |
number | 38,018 to 156,976 | count |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
mid_by_second AS
(
SELECT
dateDiff('second', toDateTime('2026-06-10 13:30:00', 'UTC'), sip_timestamp) AS sec,
argMax((toFloat64(bid_price) + toFloat64(ask_price)) / 2, sip_timestamp) AS mid
FROM global_markets.cache_stocks_quotes
WHERE ticker = 'INTC'
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime('2026-06-10 13:30:00', 'UTC')
AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime('2026-06-10 20:00:00', 'UTC')
AND bid_price > 0
AND ask_price > bid_price
GROUP BY sec
),
signed_fills AS
(
SELECT
t.sec + 60 AS future_sec,
t.et_time AS et_time,
t.fill_price AS fill_price,
q.mid AS ref_mid,
if(t.fill_price > q.mid, 1, -1) AS side
FROM
(
SELECT
dateDiff('second', toDateTime('2026-06-10 13:30:00', 'UTC'), sip_timestamp) AS sec,
sec - 1 AS ref_sec,
toFloat64(price) AS fill_price,
formatDateTime(toStartOfInterval(toTimeZone(sip_timestamp, 'America/New_York'), toIntervalMinute(30)), '%H:%i') AS et_time
FROM global_markets.stocks_trades
WHERE ticker = 'INTC'
AND sip_timestamp >= toDateTime('2026-06-10 13:30:01', 'UTC')
AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime('2026-06-10 19:55:00', 'UTC')
AND price > 0
AND size > 0
) AS t
INNER JOIN mid_by_second AS q ON q.sec = t.ref_sec
WHERE t.fill_price != q.mid
)
SELECT
f.et_time AS et_time,
round(avg(2 * f.side * (f.fill_price - f.ref_mid) / f.ref_mid) * 10000, 3) AS effective_spread_bps,
round(avg(2 * f.side * (f.fill_price - fut.mid) / f.ref_mid) * 10000, 3) AS realized_spread_bps,
round(avg(2 * f.side * (fut.mid - f.ref_mid) / f.ref_mid) * 10000, 3) AS adverse_selection_bps,
count() AS fill_count
FROM signed_fills AS f
INNER JOIN mid_by_second AS fut ON fut.sec = f.future_sec
GROUP BY f.et_time
ORDER BY f.et_time
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