SPY forward returns after the first hike of each cycle
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-20, from Stock Returns After the First Fed Rate Hike.
| cycle | fwd_1m_pct | fwd_3m_pct | fwd_6m_pct | fwd_12m_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2004 | -3.2 | -2.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| Dec 16, 2015 | -9.7 | -2.3 | 0.2 | 8.2 |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 0.5 | -15.8 | -11.5 | -9.1 |
- Rows × columns
- 3 × 5
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
cycle |
text | 3 distinct values (Dec 16, 2015, Jun 30, 2004, Mar 16, 2022) | |
fwd_1m_pct |
number | -9.7 to 0.5 | percent |
fwd_3m_pct |
number | -15.8 to -2.3 | percent |
fwd_6m_pct |
number | -11.5 to 5.8 | percent |
fwd_12m_pct |
number | -9.1 to 8.2 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH px AS
(
SELECT
date,
toFloat64(close) AS px_close,
multiIf(date <= '2005-06-30', toDate('2004-06-30'),
date <= '2016-12-16', toDate('2015-12-16'),
toDate('2022-03-16')) AS hike_date
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND ((date >= '2004-06-30' AND date <= '2005-06-30')
OR (date >= '2015-12-16' AND date <= '2016-12-16')
OR (date >= '2022-03-16' AND date <= '2023-03-16'))
)
SELECT
formatDateTime(hike_date, '%b %e, %Y') AS cycle,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 1)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_1m_pct,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 3)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_3m_pct,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 6)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_6m_pct,
round(100 * (argMaxIf(px_close, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 12)) / argMin(px_close, date) - 1), 1) AS fwd_12m_pct
FROM px
GROUP BY hike_date
ORDER BY hike_date
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