STRASMORE/EXPLORE 2,433 QUERIES

curve_at_hike

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-20, from stock-returns-after-the-first-fed-hike.

as of ranking 3×4read in context →
curve_at_hike — 3 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
cyclespread_at_hike_bpsspread_12m_later_bpschange_bps
Jun 30, 200419228-164
Dec 16, 20151281324
Mar 16, 202224-58-82
Rows × columns
3 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for curve_at_hike, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
cycle text 3 distinct values (Dec 16, 2015, Jun 30, 2004, Mar 16, 2022)
spread_at_hike_bps number 24 to 192
spread_12m_later_bps number -58 to 132
change_bps number -164 to 4

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH ty AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        toFloat64(yield_10_year) - toFloat64(yield_2_year) AS spread_pp,
        multiIf(date <= '2005-06-30', toDate('2004-06-30'),
                date <= '2016-12-16', toDate('2015-12-16'),
                                      toDate('2022-03-16')) AS hike_date
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE ((date >= '2004-06-23' AND date <= '2005-06-30')
        OR (date >= '2015-12-09' AND date <= '2016-12-16')
        OR (date >= '2022-03-09' AND date <= '2023-03-16'))
      AND yield_10_year > 0
      AND yield_2_year > 0
)
SELECT
    formatDateTime(hike_date, '%b %e, %Y')                                                AS cycle,
    toInt32(round(100 * argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= hike_date)))                    AS spread_at_hike_bps,
    toInt32(round(100 * argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 12))))     AS spread_12m_later_bps,
    toInt32(round(100 * (argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= addMonths(hike_date, 12))
                       - argMaxIf(spread_pp, date, date <= hike_date))))                  AS change_bps
FROM ty
GROUP BY hike_date
HAVING countIf(date <= hike_date) > 0
ORDER BY hike_date
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