Price return vs total return by holding period: S&P 500 tracker, windows ending July 31, 2026
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-03, from Price Return vs Total Return: The Real Gap.
| horizon | price_return_pct | total_return_pct | dividend_points_pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year | 18.2 | 19.5 | 1.3 |
| 3-year | 63.1 | 69.3 | 6.2 |
| 5-year | 70.7 | 82.6 | 12 |
| 10-year | 244.3 | 304.5 | 60.2 |
| 20-year | 485 | 736.9 | 251.9 |
- Rows × columns
- 5 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
horizon |
text | 5 distinct values (1-year, 10-year, 20-year…) | |
price_return_pct |
number | 18.2 to 485 | percent |
total_return_pct |
number | 19.5 to 736.9 | percent |
dividend_points_pct |
number | 1.3 to 251.9 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH daily AS (
SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) AS close
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2006-07-31')
AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-07-31')
AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
+ toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
GROUP BY d
),
spans AS (
SELECT y AS years,
concat(toString(y), '-year') AS horizon,
subtractYears(toDate('2026-07-31'), y) AS start_date
FROM (SELECT arrayJoin([1, 3, 5, 10, 20]) AS y)
),
divs AS (
SELECT dv.ex_dividend_date AS d,
log(1 + toFloat64(dv.cash_amount) / dl.close) AS log_growth
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends AS dv
INNER JOIN daily AS dl ON dl.d = dv.ex_dividend_date
WHERE dv.ticker = 'SPY'
AND dv.cash_amount > 0
AND dv.ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-31')
),
endpoints AS (
SELECT s.horizon AS horizon,
s.years AS years,
argMin(dl.close, dl.d) AS start_px,
argMax(dl.close, dl.d) AS end_px
FROM spans AS s, daily AS dl
WHERE dl.d >= s.start_date
GROUP BY s.horizon, s.years
),
reinvest AS (
SELECT s.years AS years,
exp(sum(dvs.log_growth)) AS factor
FROM spans AS s, divs AS dvs
WHERE dvs.d > s.start_date
GROUP BY s.years
)
SELECT e.horizon AS horizon,
round(100 * (e.end_px / e.start_px - 1), 1) AS price_return_pct,
round(100 * (e.end_px / e.start_px * r.factor - 1), 1) AS total_return_pct,
round(100 * (e.end_px / e.start_px) * (r.factor - 1), 1) AS dividend_points_pct
FROM endpoints AS e
INNER JOIN reinvest AS r ON e.years = r.years
ORDER BY e.years
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