Open to close moves on monthly expiration Fridays, SPY since 2015

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from Mini Index Options Explained: XSP, XND, MRUT.

Rows × columns

5 × 3

Computed

2026-08-22

Completeness

No missing values

Source

US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data

Licence

Strasmore terms · free, no signup

Formats

JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on 2026-08-22, and the query below is what returned them.

WITH expiry_sessions AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        abs(100 * (toFloat64(close) / toFloat64(open) - 1)) AS move_pct
    FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND date >= '2015-01-01'
      AND date <  today()
      AND toDayOfWeek(date) = 5
      AND toDayOfMonth(date) BETWEEN 15 AND 21
      AND toFloat64(open) > 0
)
SELECT
    multiIf(
        move_pct < 0.25, 'under 0.25%',
        move_pct < 0.50, '0.25% to 0.50%',
        move_pct < 1.00, '0.50% to 1%',
        move_pct < 2.00, '1% to 2%',
                         'over 2%')  AS move_bucket,
    count()                          AS expiration_fridays,
    round(max(move_pct), 2)          AS bucket_high_pct
FROM expiry_sessions
GROUP BY move_bucket
ORDER BY min(move_pct)