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Chance of at least one five loss run at a 70 percent win rate, by series length

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-17, from How Long a Losing Streak Is Normal.

as of ranking 5×2read in context →
Chance of at least one five loss run at a 70 percent win rate, by series length — 5 rows by 2 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
series_lengthpct_run_of_5
50 trades7.659
100 trades15.256
200 trades28.627
400 trades49.373
1000 trades81.931
Rows × columns
5 × 2
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Chance of at least one five loss run at a 70 percent win rate, by series length, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
series_length text 5 distinct values (100 trades, 1000 trades, 200 trades…)
pct_run_of_5 number 7.659 to 81.931 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number 
WITH 0.70 AS win_rate
SELECT
    concat(toString(n_trades), ' trades') AS series_length,
    round(100 * (1 - arraySum(arrayFold(
        (run_mass, trade) -> arrayPushFront(
            arrayMap(mass -> mass * (1 - win_rate), arrayPopBack(run_mass)),
            win_rate * arraySum(run_mass)),
        range(n_trades),
        [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]))), 3) AS pct_run_of_5
FROM
(
    SELECT arrayJoin([50, 100, 200, 400, 1000]) AS n_trades
)
ORDER BY n_trades

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