How long the worst losing run of a 200 trade series usually is, at a 70 percent win rate

Name: How long the worst losing run of a 200 trade series usually is, at a 70 percent win rate
Creator: Strasmore
Published: 2026-08-17
License: https://www.strasmore.com/terms/

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-17, from How Long a Losing Streak Is Normal.

as of 2026-08-17 ranking 7×3read in context →

How long the worst losing run of a 200 trade series usually is, at a 70 percent win rate — 7 rows by 3 columns, computed 2026-08-17 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
longest_losing_run	pct_of_series_exactly	pct_of_series_at_least
2 losses	1.79	100
3 losses	29.91	98.21
4 losses	39.67	68.3
5 losses	19.11	28.63
6 losses	6.59	9.52
7 losses	2.05	2.94
8 losses	0.62	0.88

Rows × columns: 7 × 3
Computed: 2026-08-17
Completeness: No missing values
Source: US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence: Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats: JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for How long the worst losing run of a 200 trade series usually is, at a 70 percent win rate, derived from the stored result.
Column	Type	Range	Notes
`longest_losing_run`	text	7 distinct values (2 losses, 3 losses, 4 losses…)
`pct_of_series_exactly`	number	0.62 to 39.67	percent
`pct_of_series_at_least`	number	0.88 to 100	percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on 2026-08-17, and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number

SELECT
    concat(toString(run_length), ' losses') AS longest_losing_run,
    round(100 * (no_run_of_longer - no_run_of_this), 2) AS pct_of_series_exactly,
    round(100 * (1 - no_run_of_this), 2) AS pct_of_series_at_least
FROM
(
    SELECT
        run_length,
        arraySum(arrayFold(
            (run_mass, trade) -> arrayPushFront(
                arrayMap(mass -> mass * 0.30, arrayPopBack(run_mass)),
                0.70 * arraySum(run_mass)),
            range(200),
            arrayMap(slot -> if(slot = 0, 1.0, 0.0), range(run_length)))) AS no_run_of_this,
        arraySum(arrayFold(
            (run_mass, trade) -> arrayPushFront(
                arrayMap(mass -> mass * 0.30, arrayPopBack(run_mass)),
                0.70 * arraySum(run_mass)),
            range(200),
            arrayMap(slot -> if(slot = 0, 1.0, 0.0), range(run_length + 1)))) AS no_run_of_longer
    FROM
    (
        SELECT arrayJoin([2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]) AS run_length
    )
)
ORDER BY run_length

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