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SPY: monthly implied volatility against the next month's realized volatility

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from Historical Volatility vs Implied Volatility.

as of series 18×4read in context →
SPY: monthly implied volatility against the next month's realized volatility — 18 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
monthimplied_vol_pctrealized_next_month_pctgap_pct
2025-0214.220.7-6.5
2025-031951.9-32.9
2025-0427.216.810.4
2025-0518.510.28.3
2025-0615.96.69.3
2025-0715123
2025-0813.77.16.6
2025-0913.313.8-0.5
2025-1015.715.40.3
2025-1116.78.48.3
2025-1213.510.33.2
2026-011413.40.6
2026-0216.418.2-1.8
2026-032111.69.4
2026-0417.29.77.5
2026-0515.417.7-2.3
2026-0615.712.13.6
2026-0714.811.63.2
Rows × columns
18 × 4
Period covered
to
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for SPY: monthly implied volatility against the next month's realized volatility, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
month date 2025-02 to 2026-07
implied_vol_pct number 13.3 to 27.2 percent
realized_next_month_pct number 6.6 to 51.9 percent
gap_pct number -32.9 to 10.4 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
    daily AS
    (
        SELECT
            date             AS session_date,
            toFloat64(close) AS close_px,
            lagInFrame(toFloat64(close)) OVER
                (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
        FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
          AND date >= today() - 560
          AND date <  today()
    ),
    realized AS
    (
        SELECT
            toStartOfMonth(session_date)                                       AS month_start,
            round(100 * sqrt(252) * stddevSamp(log(close_px / prev_close)), 1) AS realized_vol_pct
        FROM daily
        WHERE prev_close > 0
        GROUP BY month_start
        HAVING count() >= 15
    ),
    implied AS
    (
        SELECT
            toStartOfMonth(date)                  AS month_start,
            round(100 * avg(implied_volatility), 1) AS implied_vol_pct
        FROM global_markets.options_greeks
        WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
          AND date >= today() - 560
          AND date <  today()
          AND iv_converged = 1
          AND volume > 0
          AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
          AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
        GROUP BY month_start
        HAVING count() >= 100
    )
SELECT
    formatDateTime(imp.month_start, '%Y-%m')                    AS month,
    imp.implied_vol_pct                                         AS implied_vol_pct,
    rea.realized_vol_pct                                        AS realized_next_month_pct,
    round(imp.implied_vol_pct - rea.realized_vol_pct, 1)        AS gap_pct
FROM implied AS imp
INNER JOIN realized AS rea ON rea.month_start = addMonths(imp.month_start, 1)
ORDER BY month

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