SPY: monthly implied volatility against the next month's realized volatility
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from Historical Volatility vs Implied Volatility.
| month | implied_vol_pct | realized_next_month_pct | gap_pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02 | 14.2 | 20.7 | -6.5 |
| 2025-03 | 19 | 51.9 | -32.9 |
| 2025-04 | 27.2 | 16.8 | 10.4 |
| 2025-05 | 18.5 | 10.2 | 8.3 |
| 2025-06 | 15.9 | 6.6 | 9.3 |
| 2025-07 | 15 | 12 | 3 |
| 2025-08 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| 2025-09 | 13.3 | 13.8 | -0.5 |
| 2025-10 | 15.7 | 15.4 | 0.3 |
| 2025-11 | 16.7 | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| 2025-12 | 13.5 | 10.3 | 3.2 |
| 2026-01 | 14 | 13.4 | 0.6 |
| 2026-02 | 16.4 | 18.2 | -1.8 |
| 2026-03 | 21 | 11.6 | 9.4 |
| 2026-04 | 17.2 | 9.7 | 7.5 |
| 2026-05 | 15.4 | 17.7 | -2.3 |
| 2026-06 | 15.7 | 12.1 | 3.6 |
| 2026-07 | 14.8 | 11.6 | 3.2 |
- Rows × columns
- 18 × 4
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
month |
date | 2025-02 to 2026-07 | |
implied_vol_pct |
number | 13.3 to 27.2 | percent |
realized_next_month_pct |
number | 6.6 to 51.9 | percent |
gap_pct |
number | -32.9 to 10.4 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
daily AS
(
SELECT
date AS session_date,
toFloat64(close) AS close_px,
lagInFrame(toFloat64(close)) OVER
(ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND date >= today() - 560
AND date < today()
),
realized AS
(
SELECT
toStartOfMonth(session_date) AS month_start,
round(100 * sqrt(252) * stddevSamp(log(close_px / prev_close)), 1) AS realized_vol_pct
FROM daily
WHERE prev_close > 0
GROUP BY month_start
HAVING count() >= 15
),
implied AS
(
SELECT
toStartOfMonth(date) AS month_start,
round(100 * avg(implied_volatility), 1) AS implied_vol_pct
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol = 'SPY'
AND date >= today() - 560
AND date < today()
AND iv_converged = 1
AND volume > 0
AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
GROUP BY month_start
HAVING count() >= 100
)
SELECT
formatDateTime(imp.month_start, '%Y-%m') AS month,
imp.implied_vol_pct AS implied_vol_pct,
rea.realized_vol_pct AS realized_next_month_pct,
round(imp.implied_vol_pct - rea.realized_vol_pct, 1) AS gap_pct
FROM implied AS imp
INNER JOIN realized AS rea ON rea.month_start = addMonths(imp.month_start, 1)
ORDER BY month
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