STRASMORE/EXPLORE 2,170 QUERIES

Average implied volatility against next-month realized volatility, by name

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from Historical Volatility vs Implied Volatility.

as of table 6×5read in context →
Average implied volatility against next-month realized volatility, by name — 6 rows by 5 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
symbolavg_implied_pctavg_realized_next_pctmonths_iv_highermonths_compared
TSLA53.653.21318
NVDA43.8391218
MSFT27.527.91118
AAPL27.327.31218
KO18.917.71118
SPY16.514.91318
Rows × columns
6 × 5
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Average implied volatility against next-month realized volatility, by name, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
symbol text 6 distinct values (AAPL, KO, MSFT…)
avg_implied_pct number 16.5 to 53.6 percent
avg_realized_next_pct number 14.9 to 53.2 percent
months_iv_higher number 11 to 13 ratio or rate
months_compared number every row is 18

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
    daily AS
    (
        SELECT
            ticker,
            date             AS session_date,
            toFloat64(close) AS close_px,
            lagInFrame(toFloat64(close)) OVER
                (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_close
        FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
        WHERE ticker IN ('AAPL', 'KO', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'SPY', 'TSLA')
          AND date >= today() - 560
          AND date <  today()
    ),
    realized AS
    (
        SELECT
            ticker,
            toStartOfMonth(session_date)                              AS month_start,
            100 * sqrt(252) * stddevSamp(log(close_px / prev_close))  AS rv_pct
        FROM daily
        WHERE prev_close > 0
        GROUP BY ticker, month_start
        HAVING count() >= 15
    ),
    implied AS
    (
        SELECT
            underlying_symbol             AS ticker,
            toStartOfMonth(date)          AS month_start,
            100 * avg(implied_volatility) AS iv_pct
        FROM global_markets.options_greeks
        WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('AAPL', 'KO', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'SPY', 'TSLA')
          AND date >= today() - 560
          AND date <  today()
          AND iv_converged = 1
          AND volume > 0
          AND days_to_expiry BETWEEN 20 AND 45
          AND abs(toFloat64(strike_price) / toFloat64(underlying_close) - 1) < 0.05
        GROUP BY ticker, month_start
        HAVING count() >= 100
    )
SELECT
    imp.ticker                       AS symbol,
    round(avg(imp.iv_pct), 1)        AS avg_implied_pct,
    round(avg(rea.rv_pct), 1)        AS avg_realized_next_pct,
    countIf(imp.iv_pct > rea.rv_pct) AS months_iv_higher,
    count()                          AS months_compared
FROM implied AS imp
INNER JOIN realized AS rea
    ON rea.ticker = imp.ticker AND rea.month_start = addMonths(imp.month_start, 1)
GROUP BY symbol
ORDER BY avg_implied_pct DESC

Run your own version of this

The same 22 years of US equities and 12 years of options data are queryable in SQL or plain English. A free account runs 100 queries a day and takes no card.

More from this analysisHistorical Volatility vs Implied Volatility
AAPL realized volatility: 20-session against 60-session lookback series 72×3 SPY: monthly implied volatility against the next month's realized volatility series 18×4 Annualized historical volatility over three lookback windows ranking 6×4 Where IV percentile sits furthest above IV rank, latest session table 12×6 The same reading against each name's own 52-week implied volatility range (July 28, 2026) table 11×5 How the screened universe distributes across IV rank, latest session table 9×7 See all 2,170 queries →