wedge_vs_base

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH
bars AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        date,
        toFloat64(high)  AS hi,
        toFloat64(low)   AS lo,
        toFloat64(close) AS px
    FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('AAPL','MSFT','NVDA','AMZN','GOOGL','META','TSLA','AVGO','JPM','BAC','WFC','GS','KO','PEP','PG','JNJ','PFE','MRK','XOM','CVX','WMT','HD','MCD','NKE','CSCO','INTC','IBM','T','VZ','DIS')
      AND date >= '2010-01-04'
      AND date <= '2026-09-30'
),
split_dates AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        groupArray(execution_date) AS split_days
    FROM
    (
        SELECT ticker, execution_date
        FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
        WHERE execution_date >= '2009-10-01'
        GROUP BY ticker, execution_date
    )
    GROUP BY ticker
),
stepped AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        date,
        px,
        hi - lo AS rng,
        if(hi < lagInFrame(hi, 1) OVER w AND lo < lagInFrame(lo, 1) OVER w, 1, 0) AS lower_both
    FROM bars
    WINDOW w AS (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING)
),
feat AS (
    SELECT
        ticker,
        date,
        px,
        sum(lower_both) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 3 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)  AS wedge_streak,
        avg(rng)        OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 4 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)  AS rng5,
        groupArray(rng) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 64 PRECEDING AND 5 PRECEDING) AS prior_rng,
        lagInFrame(px, 5)   OVER wf AS px_back5,
        leadInFrame(px, 5)  OVER wf AS px_fwd5,
        leadInFrame(px, 10) OVER wf AS px_fwd10,
        leadInFrame(px, 20) OVER wf AS px_fwd20
    FROM stepped
    WINDOW wf AS (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING)
),
scored AS (
    SELECT
        f.px       AS px,
        f.px_fwd5  AS px_fwd5,
        f.px_fwd10 AS px_fwd10,
        f.px_fwd20 AS px_fwd20,
        if(f.wedge_streak = 4 AND f.rng5 < arraySort(f.prior_rng)[15], 1, 0) AS is_wedge
    FROM feat AS f
    LEFT JOIN split_dates AS s ON s.ticker = f.ticker
    WHERE length(f.prior_rng) = 60
      AND f.px_back5 > 0
      AND f.px_fwd5  > 0
      AND f.px_fwd10 > 0
      AND f.px_fwd20 > 0
      AND NOT arrayExists(d -> (d >= f.date - 10) AND (d <= f.date + 32), s.split_days)
)
SELECT
    horizon,
    round(100 * countIf(is_wedge = 1 AND fwd_pct > 0) / countIf(is_wedge = 1), 1) AS wedge_up_pct,
    round(100 * countIf(fwd_pct > 0) / count(), 1)                                AS base_up_pct,
    round(avgIf(fwd_pct, is_wedge = 1) - avg(fwd_pct), 2)                         AS avg_gap_pct,
    countIf(is_wedge = 1)                                                         AS wedge_signals
FROM
(
    SELECT
        is_wedge,
        h.1 AS horizon,
        h.2 AS fwd_pct
    FROM
    (
        SELECT
            is_wedge,
            arrayJoin([
                (5,  100 * (px_fwd5  / px - 1)),
                (10, 100 * (px_fwd10 / px - 1)),
                (20, 100 * (px_fwd20 / px - 1))
            ]) AS h
        FROM scored
    )
)
GROUP BY horizon
ORDER BY horizon ASC