{"slug":"falling-wedge-pattern","qid":"wedge_vs_base","label":"wedge_vs_base","post_title":"falling-wedge-pattern","post_url":"/blog/lang/pcm/falling-wedge-pattern#q-wedge_vs_base","columns":["horizon","wedge_up_pct","base_up_pct","avg_gap_pct","wedge_signals"],"rows":[{"horizon":5,"wedge_up_pct":52.3,"base_up_pct":54.4,"avg_gap_pct":-0.02,"wedge_signals":287},{"horizon":10,"wedge_up_pct":51.9,"base_up_pct":55.7,"avg_gap_pct":-0.39,"wedge_signals":287},{"horizon":20,"wedge_up_pct":54,"base_up_pct":57.1,"avg_gap_pct":-0.76,"wedge_signals":287}],"shape":"table","sql":"WITH\nbars AS (\n    SELECT\n        ticker,\n        date,\n        toFloat64(high)  AS hi,\n        toFloat64(low)   AS lo,\n        toFloat64(close) AS px\n    FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs\n    WHERE ticker IN ('AAPL','MSFT','NVDA','AMZN','GOOGL','META','TSLA','AVGO','JPM','BAC','WFC','GS','KO','PEP','PG','JNJ','PFE','MRK','XOM','CVX','WMT','HD','MCD','NKE','CSCO','INTC','IBM','T','VZ','DIS')\n      AND date >= '2010-01-04'\n      AND date <= '2026-09-30'\n),\nsplit_dates AS (\n    SELECT\n        ticker,\n        groupArray(execution_date) AS split_days\n    FROM\n    (\n        SELECT ticker, execution_date\n        FROM global_markets.stocks_splits\n        WHERE execution_date >= '2009-10-01'\n        GROUP BY ticker, execution_date\n    )\n    GROUP BY ticker\n),\nstepped AS (\n    SELECT\n        ticker,\n        date,\n        px,\n        hi - lo AS rng,\n        if(hi < lagInFrame(hi, 1) OVER w AND lo < lagInFrame(lo, 1) OVER w, 1, 0) AS lower_both\n    FROM bars\n    WINDOW w AS (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING)\n),\nfeat AS (\n    SELECT\n        ticker,\n        date,\n        px,\n        sum(lower_both) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 3 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)  AS wedge_streak,\n        avg(rng)        OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 4 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW)  AS rng5,\n        groupArray(rng) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 64 PRECEDING AND 5 PRECEDING) AS prior_rng,\n        lagInFrame(px, 5)   OVER wf AS px_back5,\n        leadInFrame(px, 5)  OVER wf AS px_fwd5,\n        leadInFrame(px, 10) OVER wf AS px_fwd10,\n        leadInFrame(px, 20) OVER wf AS px_fwd20\n    FROM stepped\n    WINDOW wf AS (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING)\n),\nscored AS (\n    SELECT\n        f.px       AS px,\n        f.px_fwd5  AS px_fwd5,\n        f.px_fwd10 AS px_fwd10,\n        f.px_fwd20 AS px_fwd20,\n        if(f.wedge_streak = 4 AND f.rng5 < arraySort(f.prior_rng)[15], 1, 0) AS is_wedge\n    FROM feat AS f\n    LEFT JOIN split_dates AS s ON s.ticker = f.ticker\n    WHERE length(f.prior_rng) = 60\n      AND f.px_back5 > 0\n      AND f.px_fwd5  > 0\n      AND f.px_fwd10 > 0\n      AND f.px_fwd20 > 0\n      AND NOT arrayExists(d -> (d >= f.date - 10) AND (d <= f.date + 32), s.split_days)\n)\nSELECT\n    horizon,\n    round(100 * countIf(is_wedge = 1 AND fwd_pct > 0) / countIf(is_wedge = 1), 1) AS wedge_up_pct,\n    round(100 * countIf(fwd_pct > 0) / count(), 1)                                AS base_up_pct,\n    round(avgIf(fwd_pct, is_wedge = 1) - avg(fwd_pct), 2)                         AS avg_gap_pct,\n    countIf(is_wedge = 1)                                                         AS wedge_signals\nFROM\n(\n    SELECT\n        is_wedge,\n        h.1 AS horizon,\n        h.2 AS fwd_pct\n    FROM\n    (\n        SELECT\n            is_wedge,\n            arrayJoin([\n                (5,  100 * (px_fwd5  / px - 1)),\n                (10, 100 * (px_fwd10 / px - 1)),\n                (20, 100 * (px_fwd20 / px - 1))\n            ]) AS h\n        FROM scored\n    )\n)\nGROUP BY horizon\nORDER BY horizon ASC","computed_at":"2026-10-06T15:38:26.252472+00:00","elapsed":3.575873304}