Every SPY death cross in the daily data, with forward returns
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-11-01, from Can a Death Cross Be Bullish? The SPY Record.
| event | off_1y_high_pct | fwd_1m_pct | fwd_3m_pct | fwd_6m_pct | fwd_12m_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2004 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| Jul 19, 2006 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 13.6 | 22.1 |
| Dec 21, 2007 | 5.3 | -8.9 | -10.1 | -11.4 | -41.2 |
| Jul 6, 2010 | 15.6 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 23.5 | 30.1 |
| Aug 12, 2011 | 13.4 | -0.3 | 5.2 | 14.6 | 19.2 |
| Aug 28, 2015 | 6.7 | -5.6 | 5.2 | -0.6 | 9.6 |
| Jan 11, 2016 | 10 | -3.6 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 17.9 |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 10.2 | -2.1 | 6 | 9.6 | 19.1 |
| Mar 30, 2020 | 22.7 | 12.1 | 16.4 | 27.7 | 50.9 |
| Mar 14, 2022 | 12.7 | 5.1 | -10.1 | -5.7 | -6.6 |
| Apr 14, 2025 | 12 | 9 | 15.8 | 22.8 | 30.1 |
- Rows × columns
- 11 × 6
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
event |
text | 11 distinct values (Apr 14, 2025, Aug 12, 2011, Aug 18, 2004…) | |
off_1y_high_pct |
number | 5.2 to 22.7 | percent |
fwd_1m_pct |
number | -8.9 to 12.1 | percent |
fwd_3m_pct |
number | -10.1 to 16.4 | percent |
fwd_6m_pct |
number | -11.4 to 27.7 | percent |
fwd_12m_pct |
number | -41.2 to 50.9 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH
bars AS
(
SELECT
date,
toFloat64(argMax(close, _ingest_time)) AS px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
GROUP BY date
),
smas AS
(
SELECT
date,
px,
row_number() OVER (ORDER BY date) AS rn,
avg(px) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 49 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS avg_50,
avg(px) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 199 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS avg_200,
max(px) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 251 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS high_1y,
leadInFrame(px, 21) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) AS px_1m,
leadInFrame(px, 63) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) AS px_3m,
leadInFrame(px, 126) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) AS px_6m,
leadInFrame(px, 252) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) AS px_12m
FROM bars
),
states AS
(
SELECT
*,
(avg_50 < avg_200) AS below,
lagInFrame((avg_50 < avg_200), 1) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND UNBOUNDED FOLLOWING) AS prev_below
FROM smas
),
flags AS
(
SELECT
*,
(rn >= 201 AND below = 1 AND prev_below = 0) AS is_death,
(rn >= 201 AND below = 0 AND prev_below = 1) AS is_golden
FROM states
)
SELECT
concat(formatDateTime(date, '%b'), ' ', toString(toDayOfMonth(date)), ', ', toString(toYear(date))) AS event,
round((1 - px / high_1y) * 100, 1) AS off_1y_high_pct,
if(px_1m > 0, round((px_1m / px - 1) * 100, 1), NULL) AS fwd_1m_pct,
if(px_3m > 0, round((px_3m / px - 1) * 100, 1), NULL) AS fwd_3m_pct,
if(px_6m > 0, round((px_6m / px - 1) * 100, 1), NULL) AS fwd_6m_pct,
if(px_12m > 0, round((px_12m / px - 1) * 100, 1), NULL) AS fwd_12m_pct
FROM flags
WHERE is_death
ORDER BY date
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