Implied Volatility vs Beta: What Each Tells You
NVDA beta against SPY, re-estimated monthly over a rolling twelve-month windowseries ·
2026-08-28 · 48×4
Average absolute daily move on sessions when SPY moved less than 0.25 percentranking ·
2026-08-28 · 10×4
Near-the-money implied volatility, 20 to 45 days to expiry, three weeks to Aug 21 2026table ·
2026-08-28 · 11×5
Beta and R-squared against SPY: daily returns versus weekly, twelve months to Aug 21 2026table ·
2026-08-28 · 10×5
NVDA beta against SPY, re-estimated monthly over a rolling twelve-month window
NVDA beta against SPY, re-estimated monthly over a rolling twelve-month window
| month | month_label | rolling_beta_1y | r_squared |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09 | Sep 2022 | 2.32 | 0.65 |
| 2022-10 | Oct 2022 | 2.26 | 0.64 |
| 2022-11 | Nov 2022 | 2.21 | 0.65 |
| 2022-12 | Dec 2022 | 2.22 | 0.71 |
| 2023-01 | Jan 2023 | 2.19 | 0.71 |
| 2023-02 | Feb 2023 | 2.19 | 0.7 |
| 2023-03 | Mar 2023 | 2.17 | 0.65 |
| 2023-04 | Apr 2023 | 2.08 | 0.63 |
| 2023-05 | May 2023 | 2.04 | 0.62 |
| 2023-06 | Jun 2023 | 2.06 | 0.51 |
| 2023-07 | Jul 2023 | 2.05 | 0.47 |
| 2023-08 | Aug 2023 | 2.08 | 0.46 |
| 2023-09 | Sep 2023 | 2.03 | 0.43 |
| 2023-10 | Oct 2023 | 2.11 | 0.43 |
| 2023-11 | Nov 2023 | 2.18 | 0.4 |
| 2023-12 | Dec 2023 | 2.05 | 0.33 |
| 2024-01 | Jan 2024 | 2 | 0.3 |
| 2024-02 | Feb 2024 | 1.95 | 0.28 |
| 2024-03 | Mar 2024 | 2.02 | 0.29 |
| 2024-04 | Apr 2024 | 2.22 | 0.29 |
| 2024-05 | May 2024 | 2.36 | 0.31 |
| 2024-06 | Jun 2024 | 2.16 | 0.32 |
| 2024-07 | Jul 2024 | 2.28 | 0.32 |
| 2024-08 | Aug 2024 | 2.45 | 0.35 |
| 2024-09 | Sep 2024 | 2.53 | 0.39 |
| 2024-10 | Oct 2024 | 2.68 | 0.42 |
| 2024-11 | Nov 2024 | 2.73 | 0.42 |
| 2024-12 | Dec 2024 | 2.76 | 0.42 |
| 2025-01 | Jan 2025 | 2.66 | 0.41 |
| 2025-02 | Feb 2025 | 2.87 | 0.42 |
| 2025-03 | Mar 2025 | 2.82 | 0.43 |
| 2025-04 | Apr 2025 | 2.69 | 0.44 |
| 2025-05 | May 2025 | 2.1 | 0.49 |
| 2025-06 | Jun 2025 | 2.09 | 0.53 |
| 2025-07 | Jul 2025 | 2.06 | 0.54 |
| 2025-08 | Aug 2025 | 1.98 | 0.54 |
| 2025-09 | Sep 2025 | 1.9 | 0.53 |
| 2025-10 | Oct 2025 | 1.85 | 0.52 |
| 2025-11 | Nov 2025 | 1.83 | 0.53 |
| 2025-12 | Dec 2025 | 1.84 | 0.53 |
| 2026-01 | Jan 2026 | 1.87 | 0.54 |
| 2026-02 | Feb 2026 | 1.76 | 0.59 |
| 2026-03 | Mar 2026 | 1.73 | 0.58 |
| 2026-04 | Apr 2026 | 1.7 | 0.61 |
| 2026-05 | May 2026 | 1.74 | 0.41 |
| 2026-06 | Jun 2026 | 1.78 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07 | Jul 2026 | 1.85 | 0.43 |
| 2026-08 | Aug 2026 | 1.87 | 0.44 |
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH
px AS
(
SELECT
ticker,
date,
toFloat64(close) AS close_px
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY','NVDA')
AND date >= '2021-08-01'
AND date <= '2026-08-21'
),
daily_ret AS
(
SELECT
ticker,
date,
close_px / lagInFrame(close_px) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) - 1 AS ret
FROM px
),
paired AS
(
SELECT
s.date AS d,
s.ret AS stock_ret,
i.ret AS index_ret
FROM daily_ret AS s
INNER JOIN
(
SELECT date, ret FROM daily_ret WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND isFinite(ret)
) AS i ON i.date = s.date
WHERE s.ticker = 'NVDA' AND isFinite(s.ret)
),
anchors AS
(
SELECT DISTINCT toStartOfMonth(d) AS anchor
FROM paired
WHERE d >= '2022-09-01'
)
SELECT
formatDateTime(a.anchor, '%Y-%m') AS month,
formatDateTime(a.anchor, '%b %Y') AS month_label,
round(covarSamp(p.stock_ret, p.index_ret) / varSamp(p.index_ret), 2) AS rolling_beta_1y,
round(pow(corr(p.stock_ret, p.index_ret), 2), 2) AS r_squared
FROM anchors AS a, paired AS p
WHERE p.d < a.anchor
AND p.d >= subtractYears(a.anchor, 1)
GROUP BY a.anchor
ORDER BY a.anchor
More from this analysisImplied Volatility vs Beta: What Each Tells You
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