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Macro Picture Entering H2 2026, With Receipts
SPY month by month in H1 2026: regular-hours open-to-close return per monthranking · 2026-08-11 · 6×4Preview: 6 ranked values, smallest first. The labor market, monthly: unemployment, participation, average hourly earnings, with ingest receiptstable · 2026-08-11 · 6×5 Model-based inflation expectations by horizon, monthlyranking · 2026-08-11 · 6×4Preview: 6 ranked values, smallest first. The Treasury curve at each month-end of H1 2026: bill, 2-year, 10-year, and the spreads between themtable · 2026-08-11 · 6×8 CPI year-over-year, computed from the index against the same month a year earliertable · 2026-08-11 · 6×5 CPI month-over-month, computed from the index against the prior monthranking · 2026-08-11 · 6×3Preview: 6 ranked values, largest first. The as-of receipts: every June print on file, the July CPI column armed as the next tripwirescalar · 2026-08-11 · 1×51
SPY month by month in H1 2026: regular-hours open-to-close return per month

SPY month by month in H1 2026: regular-hours open-to-close return per month

most recentas of ranking 6×4read in context →
SPY month by month in H1 2026: regular-hours open-to-close return per month — 6 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
period_startmonth_openmonth_closespy_return_pct
2026-01-01685.71691.850.9
2026-02-01689.58686.23-0.49
2026-03-01678.7650.24-4.19
2026-04-01653.9718.439.87
2026-05-01721.25756.44.87
2026-06-01755.36746.32-1.2
the exact SQL behind every number 
WITH bars AS (
    SELECT toStartOfMonth(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS m,
           window_start, open, close
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-01-01 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-01 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
)
SELECT toString(m) AS period_start,
       round(argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start), 2) AS month_open,
       round(argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start), 2) AS month_close,
       round((argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100, 2) AS spy_return_pct
FROM bars
GROUP BY m
ORDER BY m
More from this analysisMacro Picture Entering H2 2026, With Receipts
Model-based inflation expectations by horizon, monthly ranking 6×4 → CPI month-over-month, computed from the index against the prior month ranking 6×3 → The labor market, monthly: unemployment, participation, average hourly earnings, with ingest receipts table 6×5 → The Treasury curve at each month-end of H1 2026: bill, 2-year, 10-year, and the spreads between them table 6×8 → See all 2,173 queries →
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