long_end

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH daily AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        toFloat64(yield_5_year)                            AS five_year,
        toFloat64(yield_30_year)                           AS thirty_year,
        toFloat64(yield_30_year) - toFloat64(yield_5_year) AS spread
    FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
    WHERE date >= subtractYears(today(), 30)
      AND yield_5_year  > 0
      AND yield_30_year > 0
),
islands AS
(
    SELECT
        date,
        five_year,
        thirty_year,
        spread,
        row_number() OVER (ORDER BY date)
            - row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY spread < 0 ORDER BY date) AS island
    FROM daily
)
SELECT
    concat(formatDateTime(min(date), '%b %e, %Y'), ' to ', formatDateTime(max(date), '%b %e, %Y')) AS episode,
    round((argMax(five_year, date)   - argMin(five_year, date))   * 100, 0) AS five_year_delta_bps,
    round((argMax(thirty_year, date) - argMin(thirty_year, date)) * 100, 0) AS thirty_year_delta_bps,
    round((argMax(spread, date)      - argMin(spread, date))      * 100, 0) AS spread_delta_bps
FROM islands
WHERE spread < 0
GROUP BY island
HAVING count() >= 5
ORDER BY min(date)