2s10s inversion episodes: first close, last close, length, and depth
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-22, from What Is the 2s10s Spread? Yield Curve Data.
| first_inverted_close | last_inverted_close | inverted_closes | deepest_bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978-08-18 | 1980-05-01 | 423 | -241 |
| 1980-09-12 | 1982-07-16 | 400 | -170 |
| 1988-12-13 | 1989-11-06 | 174 | -45 |
| 1990-03-08 | 1990-03-29 | 16 | -14 |
| 1998-05-26 | 1998-07-27 | 27 | -7 |
| 2000-02-02 | 2000-12-28 | 227 | -52 |
| 2005-12-27 | 2006-03-29 | 35 | -16 |
| 2006-06-08 | 2007-06-05 | 203 | -19 |
| 2019-08-27 | 2019-08-29 | 3 | -4 |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-04-04 | 2 | -5 |
| 2022-07-06 | 2024-09-05 | 539 | -108 |
- Rows × columns
- 11 × 4
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
first_inverted_close |
date | 1978-08-18 to 2022-07-06 | |
last_inverted_close |
date | 1980-05-01 to 2024-09-05 | |
inverted_closes |
number | 2 to 539 | |
deepest_bps |
number | -241 to -4 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH inverted_closes AS
(
SELECT
date,
round((yield_10_year - yield_2_year) * 100) AS spread_bps
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE isNotNull(yield_10_year) AND isNotNull(yield_2_year)
AND yield_10_year < yield_2_year
),
flagged AS
(
SELECT
date,
spread_bps,
if(dateDiff('day', lagInFrame(date, 1, date) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW), date) > 60, 1, 0) AS starts_new_episode
FROM inverted_closes
),
episodes AS
(
SELECT
date,
spread_bps,
sum(starts_new_episode) OVER (ORDER BY date ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS episode_id
FROM flagged
)
SELECT
min(date) AS first_inverted_close,
max(date) AS last_inverted_close,
count() AS inverted_closes,
min(spread_bps) AS deepest_bps
FROM episodes
GROUP BY episode_id
ORDER BY first_inverted_close
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