The six lowest-payout candidate strikes, SPY July 17 2026 expiry
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-07-31, from What Is Max Pain in Options? The Real Math.
| candidate_strike | holder_payout_usd_mm |
|---|---|
| $746 | 1898.2 |
| $747 | 1940.2 |
| $745 | 1960 |
| $748 | 2071.2 |
| $744 | 2166.9 |
| $749 | 2272.8 |
- Rows × columns
- 6 × 2
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
candidate_strike |
text | 6 distinct values ($744, $745, $746…) | |
holder_payout_usd_mm |
number | 1,898.2 to 2,272.8 | US dollars |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
the exact SQL behind every number
WITH chain AS (
SELECT intDiv(toUInt32OrZero(substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 7, 8)), 1000) AS strike,
substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 8, 1) AS opt_type,
sum(toFloat64(volume)) AS contracts
FROM global_markets.options_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-18 08:00:00')
AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-18 04:00:00')
AND startsWith(ticker, 'O:SPY260717')
GROUP BY strike, opt_type
),
candidates AS (
SELECT DISTINCT strike AS settle FROM chain WHERE strike BETWEEN 730 AND 765
)
SELECT concat('$', toString(candidates.settle)) AS candidate_strike,
round(sum(multiIf(chain.opt_type = 'C' AND chain.strike < candidates.settle,
chain.contracts * (candidates.settle - chain.strike),
chain.opt_type = 'P' AND chain.strike > candidates.settle,
chain.contracts * (chain.strike - candidates.settle),
0)) * 100 / 1e6, 1) AS holder_payout_usd_mm
FROM candidates CROSS JOIN chain
GROUP BY candidate_strike
ORDER BY holder_payout_usd_mm ASC
LIMIT 6
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