After the split: median forward returns for 2025's whole-number forward splits vs SPY over the same sessions

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH events AS (
    SELECT ticker, execution_date
    FROM global_markets.stocks_splits
    WHERE execution_date >= '2025-01-01' AND execution_date <= '2025-12-31'
      AND adjustment_type = 'forward_split' AND split_from = 1
      AND split_to >= 2 AND split_to = round(split_to)
),
daily AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
                    (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_rth
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM events UNION ALL SELECT 'SPY')
      AND window_start >= '2025-01-01 00:00:00' AND window_start < '2026-03-01 00:00:00'
    GROUP BY ticker, d
    HAVING close_rth > 0
),
series AS (
    SELECT ticker, arraySort(x -> x.1, groupArray((d, close_rth))) AS dc
    FROM daily
    GROUP BY ticker
),
spy AS (
    SELECT dc AS spy_dc FROM series WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
),
per_event AS (
    SELECT e.ticker AS tkr,
           arrayFirstIndex(x -> x.1 >= e.execution_date, s.dc) AS idx,
           arrayFirstIndex(x -> x.1 >= e.execution_date, spy_dc) AS sidx,
           s.dc AS dc, spy_dc
    FROM events e
    JOIN series s ON s.ticker = e.ticker
    CROSS JOIN spy
),
measured AS (
    SELECT tkr,
           (dc[idx + 5].2 / dc[idx].2 - 1) * 100 AS r5,
           (dc[idx + 21].2 / dc[idx].2 - 1) * 100 AS r21,
           (spy_dc[sidx + 21].2 / spy_dc[sidx].2 - 1) * 100 AS spy21
    FROM per_event
    WHERE idx > 0 AND length(dc) >= idx + 21
      AND sidx > 0 AND length(spy_dc) >= sidx + 21
      AND dc[idx].2 > 0
)
SELECT count() AS splits_measured,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(r5, cityHash64(tkr)), 1) AS median_5_session_pct,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(r21, cityHash64(tkr)), 1) AS median_21_session_pct,
       round(100.0 * countIf(r21 > 0) / count(), 0) AS pct_up_after_21_sessions,
       round(quantileDeterministic(0.5)(spy21, cityHash64(tkr)), 1) AS median_spy_21_session_pct
FROM measured