scorecard
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-10-02, from the-january-barometer.
| cohort | years_in_sample | barometer_hit_pct | base_rate_pct | edge_pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All years | 22 | 59.1 | 77.3 | -18.2 |
| Up January | 12 | 83.3 | 77.3 | 6.1 |
| Down January | 10 | 30 | 22.7 | 7.3 |
- Rows × columns
- 3 × 5
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
cohort |
text | 3 distinct values (All years, Down January, Up January) | |
years_in_sample |
number | 10 to 22 | |
barometer_hit_pct |
number | 30 to 83.3 | percent |
base_rate_pct |
number | 22.7 to 77.3 | percent |
edge_pp |
number | -18.2 to 7.3 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH yearly AS
(
SELECT
toYear(date) AS y,
argMax(close, date) AS dec_close,
argMaxIf(close, date, toMonth(date) = 1) AS jan_close,
countIf(toMonth(date) = 1) AS jan_sessions,
countIf(toMonth(date) = 12) AS dec_sessions
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
GROUP BY y
),
scored AS
(
SELECT
toFloat64(cur.jan_close) / toFloat64(prev.dec_close) - 1 AS jan_ret,
toFloat64(cur.dec_close) / toFloat64(prev.dec_close) - 1 AS year_ret
FROM yearly AS cur
INNER JOIN yearly AS prev ON prev.y = cur.y - 1
WHERE cur.jan_sessions >= 15
AND cur.dec_sessions >= 15
),
unconditional AS
(
SELECT avg(year_ret > 0) AS up_share
FROM scored
),
tagged AS
(
SELECT
arrayJoin(['All years', if(jan_ret > 0, 'Up January', 'Down January')]) AS cohort,
(jan_ret > 0) = (year_ret > 0) AS sign_matched
FROM scored
)
SELECT
cohort,
count() AS years_in_sample,
round(100 * avg(sign_matched), 1) AS barometer_hit_pct,
round(100 * if(cohort = 'Down January', 1 - any(up_share), any(up_share)), 1) AS base_rate_pct,
round(100 * avg(sign_matched)
- 100 * if(cohort = 'Down January', 1 - any(up_share), any(up_share)), 1) AS edge_pp
FROM tagged
CROSS JOIN unconditional
GROUP BY cohort
ORDER BY multiIf(cohort = 'All years', 1, cohort = 'Up January', 2, 3)
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