STRASMORE/EXPLORE 2,170 QUERIES

Four major lows: SPY forward returns at three and twelve months

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-07-26, from March 9, 2009: The Bottom, On the Tape.

as of series 4×4read in context →
Four major lows: SPY forward returns at three and twelve months — 4 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
bottom_sessionbottom_closeplus_3mo_pctplus_1yr_pct
2009-03-0968.0738.568.1
2011-10-03109.9216.131.4
2018-12-24234.3719.137.1
2020-03-23222.5139.675.1
Rows × columns
4 × 4
Period covered
to
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Four major lows: SPY forward returns at three and twelve months, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
bottom_session date 2009-03-09 to 2020-03-23
bottom_close number 68.07 to 234.37 US dollars
plus_3mo_pct number 16.1 to 39.6 percent
plus_1yr_pct number 31.4 to 75.1 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number 
WITH daily AS (
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND ((window_start >= toDateTime('2009-03-09 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2010-03-17 00:00:00'))
        OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2011-10-03 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2012-10-10 00:00:00'))
        OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2018-12-24 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2019-12-31 00:00:00'))
        OR (window_start >= toDateTime('2020-03-23 04:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2021-03-30 00:00:00')))
    GROUP BY et_date
)
SELECT
    bottom_session,
    round(argMin(close_usd, et_date), 2) AS bottom_close,
    round((argMinIf(close_usd, et_date, et_date >= toDate(bottom_session) + 91) / argMin(close_usd, et_date) - 1) * 100, 1) AS plus_3mo_pct,
    round((argMinIf(close_usd, et_date, et_date >= toDate(bottom_session) + 365) / argMin(close_usd, et_date) - 1) * 100, 1) AS plus_1yr_pct
FROM (
    SELECT
        multiIf(et_date >= toDate('2020-03-23'), '2020-03-23',
                et_date >= toDate('2018-12-24'), '2018-12-24',
                et_date >= toDate('2011-10-03'), '2011-10-03',
                '2009-03-09') AS bottom_session,
        et_date,
        close_usd
    FROM daily
)
GROUP BY bottom_session
ORDER BY bottom_session

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