The Treasury curve at each month-end of H1 2026: bill, 2-year, 10-year, and the spreads between them
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-11, from Macro Picture Entering H2 2026, With Receipts.
| period_start | y3m_pct | y2_pct | y10_pct | spread_2s10s_pct | y2_minus_bill_pct | y2_chg_since_jan | y10_chg_since_jan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | 3.67 | 3.52 | 4.26 | 0.74 | -0.15 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 3.67 | 3.38 | 3.97 | 0.59 | -0.29 | -0.14 | -0.29 |
| 2026-03-01 | 3.7 | 3.79 | 4.3 | 0.51 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| 2026-04-01 | 3.68 | 3.88 | 4.4 | 0.52 | 0.2 | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 3.69 | 3.98 | 4.45 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.19 |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.87 | 4.14 | 4.44 | 0.3 | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.18 |
- Rows × columns
- 6 × 8
- Period covered
- to
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
period_start |
date | 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-01 | |
y3m_pct |
number | 3.67 to 3.87 | percent |
y2_pct |
number | 3.38 to 4.14 | percent |
y10_pct |
number | 3.97 to 4.45 | percent |
spread_2s10s_pct |
number | 0.3 to 0.74 | percent |
y2_minus_bill_pct |
number | -0.29 to 0.29 | percent |
y2_chg_since_jan |
number | -0.14 to 0.62 | |
y10_chg_since_jan |
number | -0.29 to 0.19 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
SELECT toString(toStartOfMonth(date)) AS period_start,
round(argMax(yield_3_month, date), 2) AS y3m_pct,
round(argMax(yield_2_year, date), 2) AS y2_pct,
round(argMax(yield_10_year, date), 2) AS y10_pct,
round(argMax(yield_10_year, date) - argMax(yield_2_year, date), 2) AS spread_2s10s_pct,
round(argMax(yield_2_year, date) - argMax(yield_3_month, date), 2) AS y2_minus_bill_pct,
round(round(argMax(yield_2_year, date), 2) - first_value(round(argMax(yield_2_year, date), 2)) OVER (ORDER BY toStartOfMonth(date)), 2) AS y2_chg_since_jan,
round(round(argMax(yield_10_year, date), 2) - first_value(round(argMax(yield_10_year, date), 2)) OVER (ORDER BY toStartOfMonth(date)), 2) AS y10_chg_since_jan
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= toDate('2026-01-01') AND date < toDate('2026-07-01')
AND yield_2_year IS NOT NULL AND yield_10_year IS NOT NULL AND yield_3_month IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY toStartOfMonth(date)
ORDER BY period_start
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