The full bear market: SPY peak close to trough close, and the road back
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-07-26, from Lehman's Collapse: The 2008 Tape, Replayed.
- Rows × columns
- 1 × 11
- Period covered
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
peak_date |
date | 2007-10-09 | |
peak_close |
number | every row is 156.41 | US dollars |
trough_date |
date | 2009-03-09 | |
trough_close |
number | every row is 68.07 | US dollars |
peak_to_trough_pct |
number | every row is -56.5 | percent |
sessions_peak_to_trough |
number | every row is 355 | |
lehman_monday_close |
number | every row is 120.34 | US dollars |
peak_to_lehman_pct |
number | every row is -23.1 | percent |
trough_vs_lehman_pct |
number | every row is -43.4 | percent |
lehman_eve_reclaim_date |
date | 2010-12-22 | |
sessions_until_reclaim |
number | every row is 572 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH daily AS (
SELECT
toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959) AS close_usd
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND window_start >= toDateTime('2007-01-01 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2014-01-01 00:00:00')
GROUP BY et_date
),
(SELECT argMax(et_date, (close_usd, et_date)) FROM daily WHERE et_date < toDate('2008-09-15')) AS peak_d,
(SELECT argMin(et_date, (close_usd, et_date)) FROM daily WHERE et_date < toDate('2010-01-01')) AS trough_d,
(SELECT max(close_usd) FROM daily WHERE et_date = toDate('2008-09-12')) AS lehman_eve_close,
(SELECT min(et_date) FROM daily WHERE et_date > toDate('2008-09-15') AND close_usd >= lehman_eve_close) AS reclaim_d
SELECT
toString(peak_d) AS peak_date,
round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = peak_d), 2) AS peak_close,
toString(trough_d) AS trough_date,
round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = trough_d), 2) AS trough_close,
round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = trough_d) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = peak_d) - 1) * 100, 1) AS peak_to_trough_pct,
countIf(et_date > peak_d AND et_date <= trough_d) AS sessions_peak_to_trough,
round(maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')), 2) AS lehman_monday_close,
round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = peak_d) - 1) * 100, 1) AS peak_to_lehman_pct,
round((maxIf(close_usd, et_date = trough_d) / maxIf(close_usd, et_date = toDate('2008-09-15')) - 1) * 100, 1) AS trough_vs_lehman_pct,
toString(reclaim_d) AS lehman_eve_reclaim_date,
countIf(et_date > toDate('2008-09-15') AND et_date < reclaim_d) AS sessions_until_reclaim
FROM daily
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