Share of sessions with an inverted curve: front band above the 91-180 day band, twelve months to July 31, 2026
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-28, from IV Term Structure: What the Curve Tells You.
| ticker | sessions | inverted_pct | median_spread_pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 251 | 68.5 | 1.4 |
| JNJ | 250 | 56.8 | 0.5 |
| PG | 251 | 54.6 | 0.3 |
| KO | 251 | 51.8 | 0.1 |
| AAPL | 251 | 39.4 | -0.7 |
| NVDA | 251 | 32.3 | -2.6 |
| WMT | 251 | 31.1 | -2.1 |
| MSFT | 251 | 28.7 | -2.4 |
| AMZN | 250 | 26.4 | -3.1 |
| SPY | 251 | 19.5 | -2.1 |
- Rows × columns
- 10 × 4
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
ticker |
text | 10 distinct values (AAPL, AMZN, JNJ…) | |
sessions |
number | 250 to 251 | |
inverted_pct |
number | 19.5 to 68.5 | percent |
median_spread_pts |
number | -3.1 to 1.4 |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH daily AS (
SELECT underlying_symbol,
toDate(date) AS session_date,
quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(toFloat64(implied_volatility), cityHash64(ticker),
days_to_expiry BETWEEN 5 AND 30) AS front_iv,
quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(toFloat64(implied_volatility), cityHash64(ticker),
days_to_expiry BETWEEN 91 AND 180) AS back_iv
FROM global_markets.options_greeks
WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('NVDA', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'AMZN', 'KO', 'JNJ', 'PG', 'SPY', 'XOM', 'WMT')
AND date >= toDate('2025-08-01')
AND date < toDate('2026-08-01')
AND iv_converged = 1
AND volume > 0
AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.03 AND 5
AND abs(toFloat64(delta)) BETWEEN 0.35 AND 0.65
AND ((days_to_expiry BETWEEN 5 AND 30) OR (days_to_expiry BETWEEN 91 AND 180))
GROUP BY underlying_symbol, session_date
HAVING countIf(days_to_expiry BETWEEN 5 AND 30) >= 3
AND countIf(days_to_expiry BETWEEN 91 AND 180) >= 3
)
SELECT underlying_symbol AS ticker,
count() AS sessions,
round(100 * countIf(front_iv > back_iv) / count(), 1) AS inverted_pct,
round(100 * quantileDeterministic(0.5)(front_iv - back_iv,
cityHash64(concat(underlying_symbol, toString(session_date)))), 1) AS median_spread_pts
FROM daily
GROUP BY underlying_symbol
ORDER BY inverted_pct DESC