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Share of sessions with an inverted curve: front band above the 91-180 day band, twelve months to July 31, 2026

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-04, from IV Term Structure: What the Curve Tells You.

as of ranking 10×4read in context →
Share of sessions with an inverted curve: front band above the 91-180 day band, twelve months to July 31, 2026 — 10 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
tickersessionsinverted_pctmedian_spread_pts
XOM25168.51.4
JNJ25056.80.5
PG25154.60.3
KO25151.80.1
AAPL25139.4-0.7
NVDA25132.3-2.6
WMT25131.1-2.1
MSFT25128.7-2.4
AMZN25026.4-3.1
SPY25119.5-2.1
Rows × columns
10 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Share of sessions with an inverted curve: front band above the 91-180 day band, twelve months to July 31, 2026, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
ticker text 10 distinct values (AAPL, AMZN, JNJ…)
sessions number 250 to 251
inverted_pct number 19.5 to 68.5 percent
median_spread_pts number -3.1 to 1.4

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number 
WITH daily AS (
    SELECT underlying_symbol,
           toDate(date) AS session_date,
           quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(toFloat64(implied_volatility), cityHash64(ticker),
                                        days_to_expiry BETWEEN 5 AND 30) AS front_iv,
           quantileDeterministicIf(0.5)(toFloat64(implied_volatility), cityHash64(ticker),
                                        days_to_expiry BETWEEN 91 AND 180) AS back_iv
    FROM global_markets.options_greeks
    WHERE underlying_symbol IN ('NVDA', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'AMZN', 'KO', 'JNJ', 'PG', 'SPY', 'XOM', 'WMT')
      AND date >= toDate('2025-08-01')
      AND date < toDate('2026-08-01')
      AND iv_converged = 1
      AND volume > 0
      AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.03 AND 5
      AND abs(toFloat64(delta)) BETWEEN 0.35 AND 0.65
      AND ((days_to_expiry BETWEEN 5 AND 30) OR (days_to_expiry BETWEEN 91 AND 180))
    GROUP BY underlying_symbol, session_date
    HAVING countIf(days_to_expiry BETWEEN 5 AND 30) >= 3
       AND countIf(days_to_expiry BETWEEN 91 AND 180) >= 3
)
SELECT underlying_symbol AS ticker,
       count() AS sessions,
       round(100 * countIf(front_iv > back_iv) / count(), 1) AS inverted_pct,
       round(100 * quantileDeterministic(0.5)(front_iv - back_iv,
                                              cityHash64(concat(underlying_symbol, toString(session_date)))), 1) AS median_spread_pts
FROM daily
GROUP BY underlying_symbol
ORDER BY inverted_pct DESC

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