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Implied volatility beside the movement each stock actually delivered over the prior 30 sessions

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-17, from Is High Implied Volatility Good? IV in Context.

as of ranking 11×4read in context →
Implied volatility beside the movement each stock actually delivered over the prior 30 sessions — 11 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
tickerimplied_vol_pctrealized_vol_30d_pctiv_minus_realized
COIN78.963.815
PLTR67.858.69.2
MSFT43.334.19.2
NVDA43.938.85
SPY15.312.42.9
QQQ2625.40.5
AAPL29.332.4-3.1
JNJ2429.1-5
MSTR80.286.3-6.1
KO20.928.4-7.5
TSLA47.367.7-20.4
Rows × columns
11 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Implied volatility beside the movement each stock actually delivered over the prior 30 sessions, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
ticker text 11 distinct values (AAPL, COIN, JNJ…)
implied_vol_pct number 15.3 to 80.2 percent
realized_vol_30d_pct number 12.4 to 86.3 percent
iv_minus_realized number -20.4 to 15 ratio or rate

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number
WITH daily AS (
    SELECT ticker,
           toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d,
           argMax(close, window_start) AS px
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker IN ('KO','JNJ','SPY','QQQ','AAPL','MSFT','NVDA','TSLA','PLTR','COIN','MSTR')
      AND toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) BETWEEN toDate('2026-05-20') AND toDate('2026-07-28')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY ticker, d
),
rets AS (
    SELECT ticker, d,
           log(px / any(px) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY d ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND 1 PRECEDING)) AS r
    FROM daily
),
realized AS (
    SELECT ticker, 100 * stddevSamp(r) * sqrt(252) AS rv
    FROM rets
    WHERE r IS NOT NULL AND d > toDate('2026-06-12')
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING count() >= 20
),
implied AS (
    SELECT underlying_symbol AS ticker,
           100 * quantileExact(0.5)(implied_volatility) AS iv
    FROM global_markets.options_greeks
    WHERE date = '2026-07-28'
      AND underlying_symbol IN ('KO','JNJ','SPY','QQQ','AAPL','MSFT','NVDA','TSLA','PLTR','COIN','MSTR')
      AND iv_converged AND implied_volatility BETWEEN 0.02 AND 5
      AND abs(strike_price / underlying_close - 1) <= 0.05
      AND expiration_date BETWEEN date + 20 AND date + 60
    GROUP BY ticker
)
SELECT implied.ticker AS ticker,
       round(implied.iv, 1) AS implied_vol_pct,
       round(realized.rv, 1) AS realized_vol_30d_pct,
       round(implied.iv - realized.rv, 1) AS iv_minus_realized
FROM implied INNER JOIN realized ON implied.ticker = realized.ticker
ORDER BY iv_minus_realized DESC

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