scenarios
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-10-24, from ibm-dividend-2026-forecast.
| scenario | next_quarterly_usd | next_annual_usd | raise_pct | annual_cost_bn | yield_at_last_close_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0 Cent | 1.69 | 6.76 | 0 | 6.41 | 2.67 |
| +1 Cent | 1.7 | 6.8 | 0.59 | 6.45 | 2.68 |
| +2 Cent | 1.71 | 6.84 | 1.18 | 6.49 | 2.7 |
| +3 Cent | 1.72 | 6.88 | 1.78 | 6.53 | 2.71 |
| +5 Cent | 1.74 | 6.96 | 2.96 | 6.6 | 2.74 |
- Rows × columns
- 5 × 6
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
scenario |
text | 5 distinct values (+0 Cent, +1 Cent, +2 Cent…) | |
next_quarterly_usd |
number | 1.69 to 1.74 | US dollars |
next_annual_usd |
number | 6.76 to 6.96 | US dollars |
raise_pct |
number | 0 to 2.96 | percent |
annual_cost_bn |
number | 6.41 to 6.6 | |
yield_at_last_close_pct |
number | 2.67 to 2.74 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
WITH
(
SELECT max(toFloat64(cash_amount))
FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
WHERE ticker = 'IBM'
AND ex_dividend_date BETWEEN today() - 120 AND today()
) AS current_quarterly,
(
SELECT argMax(toFloat64(close), date)
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'IBM'
AND date >= today() - 30
AND date <= today()
) AS last_close,
(
SELECT argMax(toFloat64(diluted_shares_outstanding), (filing_date, period_end))
FROM global_markets.stocks_income_statements
WHERE has(tickers, 'IBM')
AND timeframe = 'quarterly'
AND period_end >= today() - 400
AND period_end <= today()
) AS diluted_shares
SELECT
concat('+', toString(step_cents), ' Cent') AS scenario,
round(current_quarterly + step_cents / 100, 2) AS next_quarterly_usd,
round((current_quarterly + step_cents / 100) * 4, 2) AS next_annual_usd,
round(step_cents / 100 / current_quarterly * 100, 2) AS raise_pct,
round((current_quarterly + step_cents / 100) * 4 * diluted_shares / 1e9, 2) AS annual_cost_bn,
round((current_quarterly + step_cents / 100) * 4 / last_close * 100, 2) AS yield_at_last_close_pct
FROM
(
SELECT arrayJoin([0, 1, 2, 3, 5]) AS step_cents
)
ORDER BY step_cents
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