Distance from the 10:00 a.m. ET price to the close, SPY, by month

Name: Distance from the 10:00 a.m. ET price to the close, SPY, by month
Creator: Strasmore
Published: 2026-08-06
License: https://www.strasmore.com/terms/

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-06, from How Mutual Fund NAV Is Calculated: Example.

as of 2026-08-06 series 12×4read in context →

Distance from the 10:00 a.m. ET price to the close, SPY, by month — 12 rows by 4 columns, computed 2026-08-06 from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
month	month_label	avg_move_pct	largest_move_pct
2025-08	Aug 2025	0.32	0.9
2025-09	Sep 2025	0.25	0.64
2025-10	Oct 2025	0.48	2.98
2025-11	Nov 2025	0.66	3.34
2025-12	Dec 2025	0.34	1.11
2026-01	Jan 2026	0.24	0.59
2026-02	Feb 2026	0.47	1.62
2026-03	Mar 2026	0.68	2.11
2026-04	Apr 2026	0.44	0.96
2026-05	May 2026	0.31	0.73
2026-06	Jun 2026	0.59	1.5
2026-07	Jul 2026	0.36	1.09

Rows × columns: 12 × 4
Computed: 2026-08-06
Completeness: No missing values
Source: US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence: Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats: JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Distance from the 10:00 a.m. ET price to the close, SPY, by month, derived from the stored result.
Column	Type	Range	Notes
`month`	text	12 distinct values (2025-08, 2025-09, 2025-10…)
`month_label`	text	12 distinct values (Apr 2026, Aug 2025, Dec 2025…)
`avg_move_pct`	number	0.24 to 0.68	percent
`largest_move_pct`	number	0.59 to 3.34	percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on 2026-08-06, and the query below is what returned them.

Run it yourself

This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.

WITH session_marks AS
(
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
        argMinIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
                 (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
                  + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) >= 600) AS price_at_10am,
        argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start)                                      AS price_at_close,
        countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
                 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) >= 600)  AS bars_after_10am
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-08-01 00:00:00', 'UTC')
      AND window_start <  toDateTime('2026-08-01 00:00:00', 'UTC')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) >= 570
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) < 960
    GROUP BY session_date
    HAVING bars_after_10am > 30
)
SELECT
    formatDateTime(session_date, '%Y-%m')                       AS month,
    formatDateTime(session_date, '%b %Y')                       AS month_label,
    round(avg(abs(price_at_close / price_at_10am - 1) * 100), 2) AS avg_move_pct,
    round(max(abs(price_at_close / price_at_10am - 1) * 100), 2) AS largest_move_pct
FROM session_marks
GROUP BY month, month_label
ORDER BY month

SQL to run

WITH session_marks AS
(
    SELECT
        toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS session_date,
        argMinIf(toFloat64(close), window_start,
                 (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
                  + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) >= 600) AS price_at_10am,
        argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start)                                      AS price_at_close,
        countIf((toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
                 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) >= 600)  AS bars_after_10am
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-08-01 00:00:00', 'UTC')
      AND window_start <  toDateTime('2026-08-01 00:00:00', 'UTC')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) >= 570
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60
           + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) < 960
    GROUP BY session_date
    HAVING bars_after_10am > 30
)
SELECT
    formatDateTime(session_date, '%Y-%m')                       AS month,
    formatDateTime(session_date, '%b %Y')                       AS month_label,
    round(avg(abs(price_at_close / price_at_10am - 1) * 100), 2) AS avg_move_pct,
    round(max(abs(price_at_close / price_at_10am - 1) * 100), 2) AS largest_move_pct
FROM session_marks
GROUP BY month, month_label
ORDER BY month

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