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Declared vs. still expected: this month in each of the last six years

Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-09-16, from Dividend Increases Expected This Month.

as of series 6×4read in context →
Declared vs. still expected: this month in each of the last six years — 6 rows by 4 columns, computed from US exchange, SIP and OPRA data.
yeardeclared_in_monthnot_declared_in_monthmedian_raise_pct
20211034.2
20221218.2
20231304.8
20241304.2
20251304
20263102.2
Rows × columns
6 × 4
Computed
Completeness
No missing values
Source
US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
Licence
Strasmore terms · free, no signup
Formats
JSON · CSV · the SQL below

What each column holds

Column definitions for Declared vs. still expected: this month in each of the last six years, derived from the stored result.
ColumnTypeRangeNotes
year number 2,021 to 2,026
declared_in_month number 3 to 13
not_declared_in_month number 0 to 10
median_raise_pct number 2.2 to 8.2 percent

Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.

the exact SQL behind every number 
WITH changes AS
(
    SELECT
        ticker,
        ex_dividend_date,
        declaration_date,
        amount,
        prev_amount,
        (prev_amount > 0 AND amount > prev_amount
             AND declaration_date > toDate('2000-01-01'))            AS is_raise,
        (prev_amount > 0 AND amount < prev_amount)                   AS is_cut,
        round((amount / prev_amount - 1) * 100, 1)                   AS raise_pct
    FROM
    (
        SELECT
            ticker,
            ex_dividend_date,
            declaration_date,
            amount,
            lagInFrame(amount, 1) OVER (PARTITION BY ticker ORDER BY ex_dividend_date
                                        ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev_amount
        FROM
        (
            SELECT
                ticker,
                ex_dividend_date,
                ifNull(max(declaration_date), toDate('1970-01-01')) AS declaration_date,
                ifNull(max(toFloat64(cash_amount)), 0)              AS amount
            FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends
            WHERE toString(frequency) = '4'
              AND ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2020-01-01')
              AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
            GROUP BY ticker, ex_dividend_date
        )
    )
),
qualifiers AS
(
    SELECT ticker
    FROM changes
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING uniqExactIf(toYear(declaration_date),
                       is_raise AND (toYear(declaration_date) BETWEEN toYear(today()) - 5 AND toYear(today()) - 1)) = 5
       AND uniqExactIf(toYear(declaration_date),
                       is_raise AND (toYear(declaration_date) BETWEEN toYear(today()) - 5 AND toYear(today()) - 1)
                                AND toMonth(declaration_date) = toMonth(today())) >= 4
       AND countIf(is_cut AND ex_dividend_date >= addYears(toStartOfYear(today()), -5)) = 0
)
SELECT
    spine.year                                                        AS year,
    ifNull(r.names_declared, 0)                                       AS declared_in_month,
    (SELECT count() FROM qualifiers) - ifNull(r.names_declared, 0)    AS not_declared_in_month,
    ifNull(r.median_raise_pct, 0)                                     AS median_raise_pct
FROM
(
    SELECT toUInt16(toYear(today()) - 5 + arrayJoin(range(6))) AS year
) AS spine
LEFT JOIN
(
    SELECT
        toUInt16(toYear(declaration_date))          AS year,
        uniqExact(ticker)                           AS names_declared,
        round(quantileExact(0.5)(raise_pct), 1)     AS median_raise_pct
    FROM changes
    WHERE is_raise
      AND toMonth(declaration_date) = toMonth(today())
      AND ticker IN (SELECT ticker FROM qualifiers)
    GROUP BY year
) AS r ON r.year = spine.year
ORDER BY year

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