SPY calendar-year price return against a 15% cap and 9% buffer
Answered against 22 years of US equities and 12 years of US options data and published with the query that produced it. This result is stored as of 2026-08-12, from How Buffer ETFs Work: Caps and Resets.
| outcome_year | index_return_pct | fund_return_pct |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| 2015 | -0.8 | 0 |
| 2016 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| 2017 | 18.5 | 15 |
| 2018 | -7 | 0 |
| 2019 | 28.7 | 15 |
| 2020 | 15.1 | 15 |
| 2021 | 28.8 | 15 |
| 2022 | -19.9 | -10.899999999999999 |
| 2023 | 24.8 | 15 |
| 2024 | 24 | 15 |
| 2025 | 16.6 | 15 |
- Rows × columns
- 12 × 3
- Computed
- Completeness
- No missing values
- Source
- US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data
- Licence
- Strasmore terms · free, no signup
What each column holds
| Column | Type | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
outcome_year |
text | 12 distinct values (2014, 2015, 2016…) | |
index_return_pct |
number | -19.9 to 28.8 | percent |
fund_return_pct |
number | -10.9 to 15 | percent |
Computed from Strasmore's warehouse of US exchange, SIP and OPRA market data. Equity prices are delayed; options greeks and implied volatility are end-of-day. This result is stored, not recomputed on load — it is exactly the numbers that were returned on , and the query below is what returned them.
Run it yourself
This is the exact query behind the result above. Change a ticker, a date or a column and run it against the warehouse — no account, no key. The no-signup tier is smaller than the one this page was computed on; a query that reaches past it comes back saying which plan runs it.
SELECT
outcome_year,
index_return_pct,
multiIf(index_return_pct > 15.0, 15.0,
index_return_pct >= 0.0, index_return_pct,
index_return_pct >= -9.0, 0.0,
index_return_pct + 9.0) AS fund_return_pct
FROM
(
SELECT
toString(toYear(date)) AS outcome_year,
round((toFloat64(argMax(close, date)) / toFloat64(argMin(close, date)) - 1) * 100, 1) AS index_return_pct
FROM global_markets.stocks_daily_aggs
WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
AND date >= '2014-01-01'
AND date < '2026-01-01'
GROUP BY toYear(date)
)
ORDER BY outcome_year
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