Strasmore Research
Market Recap

6月29日當週美股回顧 SPY 2.2%

Matt ConnorBy Matt Connor Updated 2026-07-26

六月最後一週僅有四個交易日:市場於6月29日(週一)至7月2日(週四)交易,隨後因獨立紀念日於7月3日(週五)休市;由於7月4日適逢週六,因此提前至前一週五放假。該日休市及此處所有其他項目的收據,均顯示於各面板中。本週最顯著的量化數據出現在成交量表中:一家記憶體晶片製造商在四天內成交了 $190.2 億美元,金額是SPY本身的一半以上。此頁面上的每個數字均為儲存查詢結果;展開任一面板即可查看確切的SQL語法。

本週盤勢回顧

大盤是收復了前一週的跌幅,還是進一步擴大?記分板顯示已收復:本區塊計算各指數ETF的週變化,並對比前一週的表現,兩項數據均來自同一查詢。

查詢週增率:四大指數ETF相較上週五收盤
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT ticker,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-26') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS prior_friday_close,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS week_close,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)
         / argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-26') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100, 1) AS week_change_pct,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-26') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)
         / argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-18') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) - 1) * 100, 1) AS prior_week_change_pct
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE ticker IN ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'DIA', 'IWM')
  AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-15 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY ticker
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SPY 本週收在 $744.8,較前一週五上漲 2.2%,而前一週則為 -2.3%。QQQ 在經歷前一週 -4.6% 的表現後,本週上漲 1%。DIA 上漲 2%,IWM 收在 297.53,本週漲幅 0%,在大型股指數上漲之際,表現持平。

本週與過去一年比較

查詢本週對比過去一年各週:SPY每週開盤至收盤(排名1為最佳;排除短週)
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT round(anyIf(ret, wk = toDate('2026-06-29')), 2) AS week_2026_pct,
       arrayCount(x -> x > anyIf(ret, wk = toDate('2026-06-29')), groupArrayIf(ret, wk != toDate('2026-06-29'))) + 1 AS rank_best,
       count() AS weeks_compared,
       toString(min(wk)) AS first_week,
       anyIf(sessions, wk = toDate('2026-06-29')) AS sessions_this_week
FROM (
    SELECT toStartOfWeek(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')), 1) AS wk,
           uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) AS sessions,
           (argMax(toFloat64(close), window_start) / argMin(toFloat64(open), window_start) - 1) * 100 AS ret
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE ticker = 'SPY'
      AND window_start >= toDateTime('2025-06-29 00:00:00')
      AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
      AND (toHour(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) * 60 + toMinute(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) BETWEEN 570 AND 959
    GROUP BY wk
    HAVING sessions >= 3
)
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以本週開盤至收盤計算(週一第一根常規交易時段K線至週四最後一根),與上方週五收盤的統計數據略有不同。根據記錄,SPY本週表現排名在過去53週中為第14名(第1名為最佳):處於中間位置,而過去一年同時包含了賣壓與反彈。少於三個交易日的週次會被排除;本週共有4個交易日。歷史背景會隨著時間窗口調整,半年的回顧報告會將各期間與分鐘級別數據庫中的每一年進行比較。

四個交易日,然後放假

一週五個交易日是假設,而非事實;本週只有四個交易日。收盤面板直接從行情帶確認休市情況:7月3日沒有印出任何SPY柱線,而四個交易日內則有1560根常規時段柱線。

查詢交易時段記錄:四個交易日、一個週五休市,經行情帶驗證
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    (SELECT uniqExact(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York'))) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-29 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')) AS sessions_in_week,
    (SELECT countIf((toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-29 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')) AS regular_bars_week,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
     WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-04 00:00:00')) AS jul3_spy_bars
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查詢逐日交易:SPY收盤價、變動及全日成交量
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS et_date,
    round(argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199), 2) AS spy_close,
    round((argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) / any(prev) - 1) * 100, 1) AS change_pct,
    round(toFloat64(sum(volume)) / 1e6, 1) AS shares_m
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
INNER JOIN (
    SELECT d, lagInFrame(c) OVER (ORDER BY d ASC ROWS BETWEEN 1 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS prev
    FROM (
        SELECT toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) AS d, argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS c
        FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
        WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-26 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
        GROUP BY d
    )
) AS p ON toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) = p.d
WHERE ticker = 'SPY' AND window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-29 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
GROUP BY et_date
ORDER BY et_date
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四個交易日均完整執行常規交易時程,1560根常規柱線正好對應四個390分鐘的交易日。本週收盤時幾乎持平(-0.1%),以2026-07-02的表現進入假期;本週的漲幅是在前三個交易日中實現的。

市場廣度:有多少股票上漲

單一指數上漲可能掩蓋整體市場下跌。本面板統計每週兩端皆有收盤價的所有股票代碼,並揭露被排除的股票數量,而非默默剔除。

查詢本週漲跌家數,附流動性篩選揭露
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    countIf(chg > 0 AND NOT dropped) AS advancers,
    countIf(chg < 0 AND NOT dropped) AS decliners,
    countIf(chg = 0 AND NOT dropped) AS unchanged,
    countIf(dropped) AS dropped_by_liquidity_filter,
    count() AS tickers_with_both_closes
FROM (
    SELECT ticker,
        argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199)
      - argMaxIf(toFloat64(close), window_start, toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-26') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) AS chg,
        sumIf(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume), toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2026-06-29')) < 1e6 AS dropped
    FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
    WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-26 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
    GROUP BY ticker
    HAVING countIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) <= toDate('2026-06-26') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) > 0
       AND countIf(toDate(toTimeZone(window_start, 'America/New_York')) >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199) > 0
)
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5049 檔股票本週上漲,3529 檔下跌(39 檔持平),漲勢廣泛,並非僅限於指數層級。流動性篩選器排除了 3157 檔整週交易量低於 100 萬美元的股票;這些股票在此處列入計算,而非默默剔除。

盤面領頭羊:一檔股票超越ETF

查詢6月29日當週常規時段美元成交量(排除一檔重複代碼待實體確認)
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT ticker,
    round(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / 1e9, 1) AS dollar_bn,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume)) / max(sum(toFloat64(close) * toFloat64(volume))) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_leader
FROM global_markets.delayed_stocks_minute_aggs
WHERE window_start >= toDateTime('2026-06-29 00:00:00') AND window_start < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')
  AND (toHour(window_start) * 60 + toMinute(window_start)) BETWEEN 810 AND 1199
  AND ticker NOT IN ('SPCX')
GROUP BY ticker
ORDER BY dollar_bn DESC
LIMIT 8
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MU 在常規交易時段創下190.2億美元的成交金額,領先整個盤面。規模最大的ETF——SPY,其成交金額僅為該股的66.4%。一檔單一公司股票在整整一週內,交易量超越市場預設的指數基金,是本週最顯著的客觀事實;本頁面僅報導資金流動的規模,而非其背後原因。基準期間:6月29日至7月2日常規交易時段;一檔於6月重新掛牌、代號重複的股票,在實體驗證完成前予以排除,其相關憑證收錄於其專題深度分析

假期調整了週選擇權的到期日

當週五適逢休市時,原定於週五到期的週選擇權會如何處理?選擇權報價資料直接提供了答案:此面板會解析該週交易中每口合約的到期日,並進行排名。

查詢本週交易合約,按到期日分類(單次掃描;批次生成)
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT concat('20', substring(expiry_raw, 1, 2), '-', substring(expiry_raw, 3, 2), '-', substring(expiry_raw, 5, 2)) AS expiry,
    round(sum(size) / 1e6, 1) AS contracts_m,
    round(100 * sum(size) / max(sum(size)) OVER (), 1) AS pct_of_biggest
FROM (
    SELECT substring(ticker, length(ticker) - 14, 6) AS expiry_raw, size
    FROM global_markets.options_trades
    WHERE sip_timestamp >= toDateTime64('2026-06-29 00:00:00', 9) AND sip_timestamp < toDateTime64('2026-07-03 00:00:00', 9)
)
GROUP BY expiry
ORDER BY contracts_m DESC
LIMIT 6
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本週交易最活絡的到期日為 2026-07-02(週四),成交量達 74.1 百萬口合約,較次一到期日高出 42.2%。由於7月3日休市,本週原訂於「週五」到期的選擇權,順勢移至週四;而週一至週三的每日到期選擇權,以及7月17日的月選擇權,則填補了表格中的其餘位置。到期日是根據每口合約的OCC代碼(報價資料本身的到期日欄位並不可靠)重新解析而得;有關此類到期週的運作機制,請參閱 假期影響說明

利率:10年期殖利率回升

查詢本週公債殖利率(7月2日報價於生成時尚未收錄)
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
    round(yield_10_year, 2) AS y10,
    round(yield_2_year, 2) AS y2,
    round((yield_10_year - yield_2_year) * 100, 0) AS spread_2s10s_bp
FROM global_markets.treasury_yields
WHERE date >= toDate('2026-06-26') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-02')
ORDER BY date
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10年期殖利率從前一週五的4.38%升至2026-07-024.49%,而2年期與10年期利差則維持在35個基點附近。需說明的是:本頁面生成時(截至7月1日共5筆資料),7月2日的殖利率數據尚未匯入,該數據將於下次更新時顯示。

行事曆:季度結束,申報日卻憑空消失

查詢本週企業行事曆:顯示6月30日申報指數缺口
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_dividends WHERE ex_dividend_date >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND ex_dividend_date <= toDate('2026-07-02')) AS ex_div_events,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_splits WHERE execution_date >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND execution_date <= toDate('2026-07-02')) AS splits,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_ipos WHERE listing_date >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND listing_date <= toDate('2026-07-02')) AS ipos,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = toDate('2026-06-29')) AS filings_jun29,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = toDate('2026-06-30')) AS filings_jun30,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = toDate('2026-07-01')) AS filings_jul1,
    (SELECT uniqExact(accession_number) FROM global_markets.stocks_sec_edgar_index WHERE filing_date = toDate('2026-07-02')) AS filings_jul2,
    (SELECT count() FROM global_markets.stocks_news WHERE published_utc >= toDateTime('2026-06-29 00:00:00') AND published_utc < toDateTime('2026-07-03 00:00:00')) AS news_articles
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本週在季度轉換之際,共有 2221 件除息事件、47 件股票分割,以及 7 件新股上市。申報欄位本週出現一項資料品質問題:美國證券交易委員會(SEC)申報索引顯示,6月29日有 4439 件申報,7月1日有 4283 件,但季度最後一天6月30日只有 31 件。前一年的季度最後一天則有數千件申報。這個缺口存在於資料來源端,而非企業實際申報的情況;任何涵蓋6月30日的6月或第2季申報總數,在索引回溯補齊之前都會被低估。這是2026年月末的資料型態之一,診斷說明附有相關收據,已在此處揭露,並將納入6月第2季的總整理中。

空頭部位:一個截斷檔案,三個完整檔案

查詢FINRA場外賣空量逐日統計:覆蓋率與標記賣空量
每個數據背後的精確 SQL 語法
SELECT toString(date) AS d,
    uniqExact(ticker) AS tickers_on_file,
    max(ticker) AS alphabetical_end,
    round(100 * sum(toFloat64(short_volume)) / sum(toFloat64(total_volume)), 1) AS marked_short_pct
FROM (
    SELECT date, ticker, any(short_volume) AS short_volume, any(total_volume) AS total_volume
    FROM global_markets.stocks_short_volume
    WHERE date >= toDate('2026-06-29') AND date <= toDate('2026-07-02')
    GROUP BY date, ticker
)
GROUP BY date
ORDER BY date
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場外交易量在週中約有 48.8% 被標記為空頭,這是造市商常規操作,並非軋空訊號。涵蓋率欄位附有說明:6月29日的檔案是全市場截斷版本(5489 個股票代號截至「SSUS」,而完整交易日約有15,000個股票代號截至「ZYME」),因此6月29日的 45.8% 是根據部分檔案計算得出。6月29日深度分析中包含了完整的全市場調查。

資料說明

完整資料說明
  • 7月3日為全日休市,並非提前收盤。 2026年7月4日適逢星期六;紐約證券交易所與那斯達克於7月3日星期五放假,當日0 根SPY K線列印。本頁重新產生時發現一則資料集備註:交易所行事曆表格為滾動式未來假期資訊源,7月3日該列在假期過後即因時效而移出(本頁初版時該列仍存在);因此休市憑證即為磁帶上零K線交易日,相關機制詳見假期說明
  • 放空數據截至6月15日結算。 本頁產生時,6月底雙月結算數據尚未公布;此處未使用該筆資料,6月回顧已載明完整揭露事項。待該數據公布後,本文將重新產生。
  • 6月30日申報指數缺口已於上文行間揭露;7月2日國庫券列印資料待匯入。
  • 6月29日FINRA放空成交量檔案全市場出現截斷;其比率已於行間附註揭露涵蓋範圍。
  • 成交量領先者排除事項: 某檔6月掛牌股票因代碼重複使用,在實體確認前已自領先榜單中排除(該股專文已附相關憑證)。

方法

  • 期間為2026年6月29日至7月2日,即該週四個交易日;7月3日為市場假日。交易時段邊界係根據實際觀察到的K線確認,從不假設(交易所日曆資料集僅包含未來假日,詳見資料說明)。
  • 時間戳記以UTC儲存,並以原始UTC邊界進行篩選;本週(EDT時區)的常規交易時段為13:30–20:00 UTC。收盤價為常規交易時段最後一分鐘K線;美元成交量為每分鐘收盤價乘以每分鐘成交量,並於常規交易時段內加總。
  • 週增減比較係與前一週五收盤價對比,並與本週數據在同一查詢中即時計算,絕不讀取已儲存數值。過去一年排名每週以相同方式重新計算(以美東時間牆上時鐘的常規交易時段為準,設有最低交易日數保護,上限鎖定於本週結束時間)。
  • 資料生成透過受控唯讀路徑執行;公開頁面絕不查詢即時資料。倉儲狀態截至2026年7月5日。

此為常態週報的首期,下期將涵蓋7月6日至10日,並附回此處的連結。6月29日每日回顧以日線級別詳述週一當日情況。